With Cannes, Venice, and Telluride behind us and Toronto happening now with their highly anticipated Audience Choice Award, which will VERY likely result in an Oscar Best Picture nomination, now is a great time to take stock of what has already been released to theaters in 2026 to see what is worthy of your consideration on draft day. This year has seen HUGE movies released, so let’s not waste any more time and talk about it.

The Odyssey

Oh boy, here we go. Last year Sinners shattered the Oscar nomination record at 16 nominations. The Odyssey could very well tie that count. But this isn’t an Oscar nomination prediction post, it’s a fantasy points post. Generally, if somehow your team is NOTHING but players from The Odyssey, including the PICTURE The Odyssey itself, your team is a contender for the championship, full stop. During the regular season, it’s possible that regional critics give credit to other films, especially for above-the-line categories, but it really seems like every single category is in play here. 

Let’s start with Christopher Nolan. I genuinely believe that if Oppenheimer didn’t exist, his ceiling would be higher. However, Christopher Nolan will likely be the pre-draft number one ranked player not only because he directed AND wrote The Odyssey, but also because he co-wrote the original song “When I’m Home” along with composer Ludwig Göransson, James Blake, and Travis Scott, who also appears as the bard in the film. Because he has that SONG eligibility, he can just camp out in that SCORE/SONG/SOUND/VFX slot and amass all those previous points. I might as well call it now, Christopher Nolan is probably going to be the #1 Overall Ranked player by season’s end because of that SONG eligibility. If he’s available in the first round when you do your draft, you better be selecting him. He could very well end up with three Oscar nominations in the first round of the playoffs, and he’s all but guaranteed to get two for writing and directing.

Next is Hoyte Van Hoytema, the cinematographer. This is the first movie shot entirely in IMAX. Sure, only select theaters were able to display it in IMAX 70 mm with just a handful of other IMAX theaters able to preserve the 1.43:1 aspect ratio, but moviegoers seeing it in any other format still were treated to an absolute masterful and beautiful shooting. Sidenote, I was one of the lucky people to see it at the Smithsonian Air and Space Museum with the 1.43:1 aspect ratio, and every single frame was pure art. I was astounded the entire time. He’s a shoo-in for the Oscar, and he’ll be locking down wins every single step of the way. He’s as clear a frontrunner as any cinematographer can be in any given year. Roger Deakins (1917) was worthy of a high second round pick a few years ago, and Hoyte Van Hoytema is no exception. If he’s available in the second round, I’m probably going to draft him.

As far as The Odyssey as a PICTURE? Easily a first round selection. Can you imagine literally any awards body except for purely independent or documentary ceremonies snubbing it for a nomination? Of course not. It’s the frontrunner for the Oscar right now, but that can change simply because Oppenheimer exists and The Academy might zigzag to something else just because voters can have a little Nolan fatigue. However, it has such a high floor so please don’t get cute with trying to pick some other movie before The Odyssey. A case can be made for La bola negra because it has dual-threat appeal, but The Odyssey should be the first PIC off the board. Another epic due out to theaters later this year might lead me to change my mind, though. Nevertheless, The Odyssey is a very safe pick for your team.

Ludwig Göransson is becoming a John Williams-esque composer in that pretty much all scores he does is going to get recognized. And rightfully so. He could very well go back-to-back in wins and get his third Oscar in four years and his fourth Oscar in eight. And composing music using ancient instruments doesn’t hurt his chances either. That siren song still haunts me. Plus, he will undoubtedly pick up some bonus points for co-writing the original song mentioned above. He’ll likely be gone by the end of the third round.

Jennifer Lame, frequent editor of Nolan movies, also seems like a safe bet to win the Best Editing Oscar for several reasons. The first reason is obvious: it’s a long movie that doesn’t feel that long. Earlier I mentioned that this is the first movie to be entirely shot in IMAX and with IMAX cameras. That means they could only shoot for three minutes at a time. Splicing all that together is an epic in and of itself. Again, can you even imagine any awards body that honors editors leaving her out of the lineup? Editors do have a cap on points potential, but she’ll certainly be worthy of a starting slot.

This is turning into a The Odyssey appreciation post, so to spare you my fandom while giving you some actual tangible fantasy insight, here’s a list of other below-the-line players that should you should not hesitate in rostering, in tentative order of my own preference (with the caveat that I have not started doing pre-draft rankings):

• Ruth De Jong, Production Designer
• Ellen Mirojnick, Costume Designer
• The Sound Team
• The Makeup & Hairstyling Team
• Travis Scott or James Blake, Songwriters (I already mentioned Ludwig Göransson and Christopher Nolan too)
• The VFX Team (I’m personally fading this one just because Nolan films don’t usually do well here when it comes Oscar time, but the VFX will be a suitable regular season player.)
• John Papsidera, Casting Director (purely a draft and stash….will certainly get nominated for an Oscar, ride the bench until then)

Okay, so that’s up to 11 potential Oscar nominations (13 if you count VFX and Song along with Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Casting, Production Design, Costume Design, Makeup, Score, and Sound)

To get to 16 that means, three to five of the nominations need to come from the acting categories. I’ll come right out and say it, draft any actor and actress from The Odyssey at your own risk. They will get you points, don’t get me wrong, but none of them are frontrunner status for an Oscar win. Matt Damon, Anne Hathaway (especially if she’s campaigned as a supporting actress instead of lead), and John Leguizamo seem like the safest three to draft from both an Oscar nomination perspective and a fantasy points perspective. So if VFX and Original Song get a nomination while those three actors also get in, there’s 16 nominations. But I’d much rather have another actor or actress to fill my starting slot if I miss out on everything else from The Odyssey. 

Robert Pattinson might get in for Supporting Actor at a few ceremonies, but the bulk of his points will come from Primetime.

A potential sleeper pick worth a late-round flier is Samantha Morton for her brief but powerful role as Circe. She could outpace her draft position in the regular season, but given her screentime, temper your expectations for an Oscar nomination. 

All in all, you could literally fill your entire team with The Odyssey and will contend for the championship. Obviously, you’d need an Animated, Documentary, or International film, but there are plenty of those. Generally, once Nolan and The Odyssey are off the board, go after below-the-line before going after the acting categories.

Project Hail Mary

Speaking of movies I absolutely adore, it’s Project Hail Mary. And just like The Odyssey, a team filled with completely Project Hail Mary players should still contend, but mostly in the regular season. The best value comes from the PIC itself because it’s a safe bet to get an Oscar nomination. It checks a lot of boxes, and although there are a LOT of so-called “safe” Best Picture picks, Project Hail Mary will benefit from a campaign reminding voters of how fun it was. Most of anything from Project Hail Mary will get nominated everywhere, but wins will be hard to come by in all categories. This is a case of “always the bridesmaid” for fantasy points. This means there’s value in all those nominations, but come playoff time, you do need some winning contenders, and that’s going to be more difficult with other technically-centric films this year.

All below-the-line players from Project Hail Mary are worthy additions to your team. Ryan Gosling is serviceable and will likely get an Oscar nomination, although the Best Actor lineup is absolutely stacked with names like John Malkovich (Wild Horse Nine), Tom Cruise (Digger), and Andrew Scott (Elsinore) to name three safe nominations. Then you have about 10 actors competing for the final two spots. Sandra Hüller is a four-headed monster of point potential, and she’ll certainly get points for Project Hail Mary. Her point potential is astronomical because she could very well get fantasy points for all FOUR movies she’s in this year. I’ve never seen that happen. 

If Phil Lord and Christopher Miller also wrote Project Hail Mary, they’d be undoubtedly first rounders. They didn’t, so they only have that DIR position eligibility. Drew Goddard, on the other hand, will likely score more points than Lord and Miller and is more likely to get an Oscar nomination for Best Adapted Screenplay.

A sleeper pick is James Ortiz, who was master puppeteer and voice actor as Rocky. He will corner the voiceover actor market, but that market is VERY sparse. He’s more of a plug and play, but he’ll get a few points for your team in a few matchups if you need it.

The Invite

Speaking of contenders for Best Adapted Screenplay, Rashida Jones and Will McCormack are contenders for The Invite. Rashida Jones also has ACTRS eligibility, so she’ll be ranked higher just because of that, but the actual point totals she eventually earns will very likely be equal to that of McCormack. Anyway, if you drafted other above-the-line categories first, you can do worse than either of these two in your DIR/SCRN slot, and these two are ideal for one of your FLEX spots. 

Olivia Wilde also has cross-eligibility appeal being an ACTRS-DIR, and she may even get some bonus points from I Want Your Sex and Behemoth! I genuinely hope The Academy and other awards bodies lean into movies directed by women because of all the contenders out there, women directors are hard to find. Olivia Wilde just may become a dual threat not for the multiple movie credits but for acting and directing from the same movie. I would have no problem rolling with her in my ACTRS slot if I miss out on other actresses like Julianne Moore (The Debut) or Sandra Hüller (Project Hail Mary, Fatherland, Rose, and Digger). 

Edward Norton also seems like a serviceable player to fill your ACTR slot while Penelope Cruz will get points for this film along with La bola negra and Bunker. 

Below-the-line categories are tougher to come by here, but Yorgos Mavropsaridis and Anthony Boys are the most likely to end up earning enough points to be a starter in the CIN/EDIT/CAST slot.

Obsession

First of all, I LOVED this movie. A lot of people did. If you’re reading this, I’m gonna go out on a limb and assume that you probably loved it too. It’s a great movie. I’m here to tell you that three players from Obsession all have low floors and high ceilings….. I will be equally surprised if those three players end up as top five positional players or if they end up only worthy of being benchwarmers. I assume the former, but there are very few times I remember where I’ve seen so much buzz with so much doubt. After all, horror has a complicated relationship with The Academy.

However, if I approach this from a fantasy points perspective and if I temper my expectations for playoff performance by making sure I have bona fide backup plans by selecting safer (i.e., higher floor) players in each respective category, then I’m more than willing to draft these three players. The three players? Obsession itself, Curry Barker, and Inde Navarrette. 

Let’s start with Inde Navarrette. I don’t want to be a complete doomsayer when it comes to her Oscar chances, but I think if there is ever a candidate for any actor or actress to dominate in the regular season with regional critics only to be snubbed as an Oscar nominee this year, it’s Navarrette. She will certainly be a top actress, don’t get me wrong. However, if you’re counting on her to be an Oscar nominee, you might need to rethink your strategy. She could very well be an Oscar nominee, and I might even predict her to be an Oscar nominee later in the year. I’m just saying that every single year there is a critics-darling-turned-Oscar-snub, and she checks some boxes to be that: relative newcomer, horror performance, and earlier release. It’s worth mentioning, though, that she will get quite a few breakthrough points along with whatever acting points she pulls down, making her a STRONG member of your starting lineup. Just know the “injury risk” is there late in the season.

Speaking of breakthrough points, Curry Barker also has a low floor with a high ceiling. There are a few notable debut directors and it doesn’t appear that one of them will corner the market like we’ve seen in recent years, but Curry Barker also has some upside given that he carries EDIT eligibility. Most of his points will likely come from being a debut director, but there will be some points for directing and writing, making him a triple threat at any ceremony that honors debuts. He will be an all-star in the regular season, but temper expectations late in the season. Sensing a theme, yet?

And that brings up to Obsession itself. There will be plenty of genre points for it to nab, and it’ll likely get other points for sneaking into a few Best Picture nominations here and there, but an Oscar Best Picture is lofty. “But, John,” you say, “Sinners was a horror movie and broke the record for nominations.” That’s just a new sentence and not an argument. At any rate, I would love if Obsession filled my FLEX spot, but once the playoffs roll around, I’m not sure I’ll be comfortable having it anywhere but the bench. Again, I loved this movie and hope it gets all the awards it deserves, but I’m also a pragmatist.

Backrooms

Here’s another movie with a debut director that has cross eligibility, only this time, Kane Parsons also has SCORE eligibility. The downside is that he didn’t write the screenplay; Will Soodik did. At any rate, Parsons becomes an intriguing player to nab some debut director points while camping out in the SCORE/SONG/SOUND/VFX slot.

A sleeper pick is production designer Danny Vermette. No production designer is going to be a juggernaut for points, but if you missed out on a lot of others at this position, Vermette has some upside.

Michael

Please don’t make me write about a musician biopic. I hate them. I want to like them, but I hate them. Except for A Complete Unknown, which was pretty good. And Weird: The Al Yankovic Story and Walk Hard. I said what I said. But music biopics in general? Yuck. I only watch them if I have to for the Oscars Death Race. So blah blah blah…Colman Domingo seems like a good pick.

Disclosure Day

Yes, Steven Spielberg did direct a movie this year in case you forgot. I’m not drafting anything from this, though, until the last round, if at all. This year is just too stacked in all categories that this would also appear in. However, John Williams always seems to get an Oscar nomination, but that’ll be about it. He could be a draft and stash. However, I’m fading pretty much everything attached to Disclosure Day, but if Emily Blunt or some technicals are available in the last round, I might be tempted. After all, I can always drop the player later.

Is God Is

I always like a good revenge tale, and this is no exception. I’m only mentioning it here because director Aleshea Harris is a debut director and could get a fair number of debut nominations.

I Love Boosters

Boots Riley could get some points at more indie-centric awards, but I’m mostly interested in one-time Oscar nominee Shirley Kurata, who did the costume design. After all, it’s a movie about stealing designer fashion, so maybe it’s worth a late-round flier because it’s certainly going to get nominated and probably win Best Costume Design – Contemporary at the Costume Designers Guild Awards.

The Sheep Detectives / Hoppers / Toy Story 5 / Coyote v. Acme

I just like these family friendly movies this year. Toy Story 5 is a suitable animated feature that will get nominated everywhere at the very least. And maybe Taylor Swift and Jack Antonoff can get some songwriting points. Otherwise, these movies are good clean fun.

Samy Burch, writer of Coyote v. Acme, could contend for some points for also writing Late Fame.

Diane Warren

Pure draft and stash. You’ll thank me later.

Three Early Betting Picks

The U.S. is weird about Oscars betting, only allowing it in a handful of states. I happen to not live in one of those states. However, prediction markets somehow get around the geography problem. Setting my personal feelings aside, I’m looking at one prediction market now to see if there is any value, and I do see some.

The Odyssey to win Best Picture at 51 cents

I never like to bet on favorites, but it seems like a good time to buy here. It’s only going to increase until it stops increasing if some earlier marquee ceremonies start handing out wins. So you could play this one of two ways: 1) Buy now and sell before a major ceremony, or 2) Buy now and hold onto it until really close to the Oscars if The Odyssey goes on an Oppenheimer-esque steamer.

Tom Cruise, John Malkovich, and Andrew Scott

The Best Actor race appears to be a three-horse race among these three actors. Matt Damon is at number three, but I think he’s only safe for a nomination and won’t really contend the way the other three will. Also, the prediction market I’m looking at has Andrew Scott winning for Pressure instead of Elsinore. There’s no way he’s going to even get nominated for Pressure because it’s his role in Elsinore that is getting the major buzz. And my typically cautious nature in all things betting prevents me from just looking over that detail only to then be told, “Ah ah ah, you can’t cash that out because it clearly says Pressure.” So until that’s fixed, we’re left with Tom Cruise and John Malkovich. If you’re able to time the markets so that you’re always buying shares of the underdog, then you’re in a strong position toward a profit. I’m very interested in buying John Malkovich at 26 cents. He’ll be at least 50 cents by the time the Oscars roll around.

The Odyssey to win Best Cinematography at 63 cents

You’re not going to find better than that, and that’ll approach high 90’s by the time the Oscars roll around, even though I usually shy away from favorites this early.

Okay, that’s it for me. See you next time!