The always highly anticipated TIFF People’s Choice awards were announced on Sunday, and La bola negra took home the coveted prize. I thought it was certainly going to win the International People’s Choice Award, but it went all the way to winning the top prize. It was a near-lock to get an Oscar Best Picture Nomination, but now a TIFF win puts it firmly in contender status. And with the growing speculation that Digger is…well…maybe not a contender, the contender list is getting shallower. So let’s look at the three winners of the People’s Choice Award along with the three International winners. 

People’s Choice Awards (in order)

La bola negra

As of right now, I don’t think it’s an overreaction to say that La bola negra is the clearest threat to The Odyssey for winning Best Picture. This is late September and the Oscars are in March. A LOT can happen in that time. After all, we still have the anticipated release of Dune: Part Three. However, it’s hard to ignore the impact that the TIFF People’s Choice award has on the Oscar race. Sure, there was that one fluke where The Life of Chuck won, wasn’t eligible for an Oscar until the following year, and didn’t garner a single nomination. That’s neither here nor there, though. From a fantasy perspective, though, La bola negra is all but guaranteed to win Best International Feature at the Oscars and will be a dual-threat for points not only at nomination announcements, but winner announcements too. It will likely be drafted in the first round, and I can’t imagine any other movie sporting an ANI, INT, or DOC position being more valuable than La bola negra. I’m predicting it’ll be the top ranked ANI/INT/DOC movie by the time the season’s done.

Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo will also get a lot of points as dual-threats themselves for writing and directing. I can foresee them being first rounders too. They’ll be gone by the end of the second round regardless.

This is a major player in the technical categories too. I don’t know how many wins there will be, but nominations will come aplenty. Every single below-the-line category can be safely drafted and trusted to get you some points if you miss out on other clearer contenders. VFX seems to be the odd one out, but I usually like to draft a VFX player late in the draft anyway because that category doesn’t really come into play until Matchup 2 at the absolute earliest. 

As far as the acting categories, Penelope Cruz is the safest option there, especially because she is a dual- or even triple-threat with her other starring roles in The Invite and Bunker. And then there’s Guitarricadelafuente, who is somewhat of a triple-threat, albeit a unique one. He will garner points for acting, breakthrough (because this is his acting debut), and song for co-writing a major original song contender in “La nieve.” He’ll be a great regular season contributor and will do just fine in the playoffs just because of the song.

The one thing that could hurt La bola negra in the Oscar Best Picture race is Netflix. They’ll certainly be campaigning hard to win their first Best Picture Oscar, but they still have to overcome a real bias from The Academy. But don’t overthink it, it’s still going to win Best International Feature.

I Play Rocky

Peter Farrelly is back in the Oscar race with crowd pleaser I Play Rocky. It does check some boxes for some Oscars love, including being about acting, which The Academy likes. This one is much more of an unknown. There is some real upside here, but the floor is also really low for any above-the-line category here. Below-the-line categories are too unknown at this point. As of now, actor Anthony Ippolito is probably the best player to have on your roster from I Play Rocky because he might get some bonus points for breakthrough. And if that’s the case, casting director Rick Montgomery might be a dark horse for an Oscar nomination. I’m deterred by Peter Farrelly because he only has the directing credit, which caps his point potential. And screenwriter Peter Gamble is a, ahem, gamble in a stacked year for adapted screenplay.

Being Heumann

One thing I noticed with the directors of this movie (Sian Heder) and I Play Rocky (Peter Farrelly): both directed movies that won the Oscar for Best Picture. Both won the Oscar in Adapted Screenplay. Neither won the Oscar for Best Director. I don’t know what the larger meaning could be there, but I found it interesting to say the least. 

Anyway, this movie is a biopic about disability rights icon Judy Heumann. I hate calling out casting directors because the point potential just isn’t there, but not a terrible idea to stash away the casting director until the first round of the playoffs. I’m not going to do that, so I’m not even sure why I’m recommending such poppycock. It’s probably because this one has a lot of unknowns too. CODA was the “little movie that could” throughout the entire season, and Being Heumann seems to be just as easy on the palate. Could it build up momentum and recreate the lightning in a bottle that CODA did? Doubtful. 2021 was a VERY different year, so temper expectations here. 

International People’s Choice Award (in order)

Elsinore

The player to own from Elsinore is Andrew Scott. It really feels like a two-horse race for Best Actor between Andrew Scott and John Malkovich (Wild Horse Nine). Andrew Scott could very well be the top ranked actor by the time the playoffs roll around. The fact that the movie is about acting doesn’t hurt its chances at all. As for everything else, I’m not nearly as bullish. The PIC itself will get some points, and could very well end up being in the Best Picture lineup at the Oscars, but I’m not sure I trust Elsinore much more than a FLEX player. Olivia Colman could sneak into the Best Supporting Actress race, but that’s based on name recognition more than anything else, because when ISN’T Olivia Colman lovely?

Possible Love

South Korea’s official submission to the Oscars and another Netflix movie, Possible Love is a pretty safe bet to get plenty of nominations, but wins will be hard to come by. It’ll likely be a fringe starter to fill your ANI/INT/DOC slot. Everything else can safely be faded.

The Assassins

No real value here. The international race is simply too stacked for another Korean movie that isn’t Possible Love to get any points anywhere.