Red Carpet Rosters

If you've ever done fantasy sports before, you know how important grouping players into tiers is. The same is true, but even more so, for Red Carpet Rosters. The concept of tiers simply means that there are natural groupings of players. If we ranked each player, the point difference between the, for example, first and second players is way different than the difference between the second and third players. If we look at last year as an example, Kodi Smit-McPhee and Benedict Cumberbatch (both from The Power of the Dog) formed a top tier during the regular season, getting a whole bunch of points. The next three actors formed their own tier: Andrew Garfield (tick, tick...Boom!), Troy Kotsur (CODA), and Will Smith (King Richard).

Having somewhat of a grasp on the tiers beforehand will help you in the draft. If it's your turn to draft, and you can draft a top tier DIR/SCRN, ACTR, or ACTRS, do it. But don't reach for that fourth Actor if he's in the next tier. Instead, go after another top tier, even if it wasn't your top choice. When you prepare for the draft, try to make your rankings into groups. Then when all of one group is selected you can concentrate on the next group, and so on.

DRAFT PLAYERS WITH MORE THAN ONE CATEGORY DESIGNATION

If you have first pick of the draft, you better be picking someone with that DIR-SCRN by their name. Anytime your player can get you multiple points per ceremony, you need to take that opportunity. Think Jane Campion last year with The Power of the Dog. Every single ceremony, she was pulling down a directing nomination/win and a writing nomination/win. That's huge upside. Chloe Zhao two years ago with Nomadland is another example, but she also EDITED the movie, potentially getting THREE nominations/wins per ceremony. If you can identify those that can get you multiple awards in a single award announcement, you'll gain a significant edge on the competition.

This just doesn't include work on a single movie. Last year Jonny Greenwood only was nominated for an Oscar for scoring The Power of the Dog, but for a LOT of other ceremonies he was also getting nominations for scoring Spencer, and throw in a few for Licorice Pizza. The animated foreign documentary Flee nabbed THREE Oscar nominations, and pretty much was guaranteed to at least get three nominations/wins everywhere else.

And last tip regarding players with more than one category designation. The "below-the-line" categories don't get you as many points as the "above-the-line" categories for a few reasons, the most major reason being that not all ceremonies even award some "below-the-line" categories but every single ceremony will award, say, Best Picture and Best Actress. If you can find someone that can fill a "below-the-line" slot in your starting lineup, that gives you a huge edge. Think Paul Thomas Anderson as a CIN-DIR-SCRN, because he shot Licorice Pizza. Even though he didn't get many awards at all for cinematography, points are points, and he can just camp out in your CIN/EDIT slot.

Another great example was Sian Heder, who had DIR-SCRN-SONG category designation because she co-wrote the original song "Beyond the Shore" from CODA. Lin-Manuel Miranda is another great example who had a whopping FIVE categories he could've been as ACTR-DIR-SCORE-SCRN-SONG.

Don't get too fooled with multiple category designations though. They have to get points in general, so if you see someone with five categories but they worked on a movie that not many people have heard of, well, buyer beware.

DRAFT LIKE YOU'RE PREDICTING THE OSCARS

The entire regular season, with NINE matchups, is played before the Oscars can give your team any points whatsoever, and that's assuming if you make the playoffs. So why in the world is it a good strategy to draft like I'm predicting the Oscars? Two reasons: One, you are probably a beginner, and it's a very solid beginner strategy.

And two: There is considerable overlap between the Oscar buzzworthy films, with the cast members in them and the crew members behind the scenes, and all those precursor awards. Granted, over 1,000 films, cast, and crew got at least one fantasy point last year, but the big point earners were from films that were getting some Oscar buzz back in October when it was draft time. Sure a LOT can change between October and March, but don't overthink it.

Plus, if you draft like you're predicting the Oscars, all you have to do is make the playoffs, and you've already got a good advantage when the Oscars are starting to give you points.

On the other side of the coin, though, there are Oscar surprises that really don't register anywhere else. Sure, if you drafted Javier Bardem from Being the Ricardos, you're happy on Oscar nomination Tuesday, but he barely registered anywhere else.

THE MIDDLE AND LATE ROUNDS OF THE DRAFT ARE ALL ABOUT VALUE

Your top four picks should be your core. Your middle and late round picks are value. Scour the prognosticators to find the diamond in the rough. A perfect example from last year is the Best Picture itself, CODA. The average draft position of CODA last year was in the NINTH round. That's major value! It didn't get a lot of points early in the regular season, but it gained a lot of momentum late. Not bad for a ninth round pick. Another example was Nicolas Cage for Pig. He became something of a sleeper pick to get an Oscar nomination, eventually getting snubbed, but he was also a late round pick for teams getting a whole bunch of regular season points for arguably his best performance of his career.

Speaking of snubs, there are always at least one actor and/or actress that gets a LOT of points in the regular season only to get snubbed when Oscar nominations come around. Recently, these included Nicolas Cage (Pig), Ruth Negga (Passing), Adam Sandler (Uncut Gems), Jennifer Lopez (Hustlers), and Ethan Hawke (First Reformed). (I would also put Kristen Stewart in here for Spencer, but she did get an Oscar nomination. However, her goose was cooked when she missed out on a SAG nomination.) All later round picks. All good value, even if they didn't get that elusive Oscar nomination. Your late round picks should be getting you points, but maybe not so far as an Oscar nomination.

Last year, Jeymes Samuel (DIR-SCORE-SCRN-SONG) with The Harder They Fall had good late round value too.

SPEAKING OF VALUE, "BREAKTHROUGH" OR "FIRST TIME" DIRECTORS, WRITERS, AND ACTORS HAVE VALUE AND ARE WORTHY OF A LATE ROUND PICK

Some awards, including the Director's Guild, have a category of first time or breakthrough or youth performance or something like that. These may not necessarily get you Oscar nominations, but will certainly help you in the regular season. Maggie Gyllenhaal, with her directorial debut for The Lost Daugher, is an excellent example of this. Other notable names in recent years include Rebecca Hall (Passing), Regina King (One Night in Miami), Florian Zeller (The Father), and breakthrough actors and actresses such as Alana Haim (Licorice Pizza), Emilia Jones (CODA), and even Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog), although he was snagged pretty early.

SPEND A DRAFT PICK ON A TOP TIER COMPOSER

The starting slot SCORE/SOUND/SONG/VFX favors those with SCORE designation, because they are much more represented in ceremonies than the others. Last year, Hans Zimmer and Jonny Greenwood were top tier. If your top tier composers are gone, go for one with upside and/or go after a SONG, but wait until late in the draft. VFX and SOUND are worthy additions late in the draft, but they should be treated as plug and plays. They're more of a draft and stash.

DON'T SLEEP ON THE WAIVER WIRE

Ryusuke Hamaguchi went undrafted in most leagues, mostly because October is too early for foreign films, like Drive My Car, to generate a lot of Oscar buzz. However, he became the most valued waiver add, and if teams picked him up, it paid dividends.

Scouring the waiver wire will also help you with "plug and plays." Maybe one matchup is heavy with sound awards, so you go and pick up a SOUND player. Those extra points can only help you.

VALUE BASED DRAFTING

This is a good strategy in fantasy sports, and it applies here too. This is the notion that it's not about selecting the player that get a lot of points, it's about selecting the player that get MORE points than your opponent. Flee is a good example of this for the ANI/INT/DOC category. It pretty much cleaned up everywhere. The difference between Flee and the second ANI/INT/DOC (which was Summer of Soul, by the way) who got the second most amount of points is quite large. Much larger than, say, the top two actors. Remember tiers? Flee was in a tier by itself.

THE FIRST MATCHUP IS WAY DIFFERENT THAN THE NINTH MATCHUP

Don't let the first matchup, with many ceremonies going towards independent features and documentaries, get you down. Don't overreact. If anything, those first ceremonies may hint at some good waiver wires additions, but don't get too enamored with them. Many Gotham Awards nominees pick up steam in the awards season, but others do not.

YOU WILL DRAFT FILMS THAT HAVEN'T EVEN BEEN RELEASED TO THEATERS YET

And that's okay. Don't let that deter you. Instead, look at film festival buzz from the major film festivals. CODA premiered at Sundance. Films are eligible if they're released by December, and you draft in October. Again, don't let that deter you from picking up a December release.

LET OTHER PEOPLE DO THE HARD WORK FOR YOU

There are a lot of Oscar prognosticators out there, and drafting for the Oscars is a strong strategy. Here are some great resources to help you on draft night:
a. goldderby.com - The site is a little hard to navigate, but you'll get nice rankings from experts, editors, and a combined ranking with user polls. These rankings also include "odds," which might help with your tiers. Even so, it puts a lot of different opinions into one ranking. What's also nice about this site, is they also do predictions for some other awards like SAG, Golden Globes, etc.
b. indiewire.com - This site isn't solely dedicated to Oscars predictions, but they have a fair amount that are pretty good and insightful
c. nextbestpicture.com - They offer predictions, but we heavily rely on this site for the awards ceremonies results
d. awardswatch.com - One guy's predictions that always offer some surprises
e. https://variety.com/feature/2023-oscars-predictions-academy-awards-nominations-1234965583/- Variety bought AwardsCircuit, and they have some good insights too.