We are wrapping up Matchup #1, the quirkiest of all the matchups in the regular season because it skews VERY heavily to documentaries, indie films, and music. I won’t take too deep of a dive into the ceremonies…I mean, you have Google…but I do want to highlight some things we’ve learned from the various awards. The biggest takeaway, we didn’t learn much. And there are several reasons for this. For one thing, the documentary race is REALLY hard to predict. And the voting bodies for these early awards don’t have a lot, if any, overlap with other industry bodies, including the Academy.
The top docs right now are Bobi Wine: The People’s President, about the Ugandan singer turned opposition leader, 20 Days in Mariupol, Ukraine’s official submission to the Academy Awards, Four Daughters, Tunisia’s official submission to the Academy Awards, Apolonia, Apolonia, about a young French painter, and Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, a crowd-pleaser already nominated for 7 Emmy’s. Special mention to Kokomo City and American Symphony, because if the Critics Choice Documentary Awards nominations were also counted for points, they would be in the thick of the points race.
DOCUMENTARIES
If you’re looking for a documentary replacement, be warned that documentaries come with a disclaimer of being high risk. Officially, I’m neither recommending nor discouraging any documentary, but I will say a few things. It’s hard to ignore the point total for Bobi Wine: The People’s President. In fact, I’m putting in a waiver request for it myself. I do doubt its endurance, though. Although completely unjustified, documentaries about African subject matter that are also NOT about animals struggle to find an audience where the points come from. There are also a lot of other competing geopolitical events happening in the world, which also have their own documentaries, like 20 Days in Mariupol. All I’m saying is to temper your expectations with documentaries, especially this year when there doesn’t appear to be a clear frontrunner. Nonetheless, to its advantage, Bobi Wine is a NatGeo doc, which is owned by Disney, and NatGeo habitually churns out quality documentaries.
Another documentary to keep an eye on is 32 Sounds. This is a unique documentary that could be a dual threat for any ceremonies with a sound award too. The sound category is pretty sparse with regular season ceremonies, but Oscar winner Mark Mangini did the sound design for it, and it’s all but assured to be shortlisted for the Oscar due to its ingenuity and cleverness. Currently, the only way to see this documentary is to attend a screening, and the screenings aren’t all created equal either. You can attend one of three different types of screenings: a normal theatrical screening, one with a headphone experience for audience members, and one with live commentary during the film. It’s new. It’s different. And sometimes that can yield some unexpected points. I’m looking to roster that one and stash it for the matchups that are heavy in sound, especially when the Motion Picture Sound Editors Golden Reel Awards in Matchup #9 and Cinemas Audio Society Awards in Matchup #8 announce their nominations with their special documentary categories.
And if you’re really feely risky, the New York Film Critics Circle (NYFCC) honored Menus-Plaisirs – Les Troisgros on Thursday. This was the first recognition in the regular season this documentary got. The glaring things about this doc is that it’s four hours long. However, it’s from nonagenarian Frederick Wiseman, who hasn’t ever been nominated for a competitive Oscar despite this being his 44th documentary. Maybe he’s long overdue for some recognition. I’m not targeting it, but the case can be made here that NYFCC started a trend.
The only other doc that piques my interest for points going unowned in leagues is Our Body about women’s health wards in hospitals. Very little commentary, but still timely given the Roe v. Wade reversal earlier this year, so groups could decide to highlight that.
CORD JEFFERSON??
Before I get into the rest of waivers, where has Cord Jefferson been? I really don’t want to overreact, but I’m thinking I was too high on Cord Jefferson. He and Celine Song were supposed to corner the breakthrough director market while they both nab a few screenplay nominations too. Yes, it’s too early to drop him and there hasn’t been many so-called mainstream awards so far, but I’m feeling nervous about his prospects. A big reason for this is the emergence of my first official waiver suggestion…
UPDATE FROM MICHIGAN MOVIE CRITICS GUILD 12/1/2023
Okay so maybe I was too worried about Cord Jefferson. He just got nominated thrice at the newly formed Michigan Movie Critics Guild, so maybe he just got a slow start. This is good news for you other Cord Jefferson owners out there.
A.V. Rockwell.
I did have A.V. Rockwell as a sleeper pick because I thought she would get nominated with Jefferson and Song while the latter two trade wins. In a fairly big surprise, however, A.V. Rockwell, not Celine Song, WON the Gotham Award for Best Breakthrough Director while Cord Jefferson wasn’t even nominated. A Thousand and One is grittier than Past Lives, but I argue it’s as every bit as good as Past Lives. Celine Song is going to get more points, but she’s expected to. If you need someone in a flex spot, A.V. Rockwell fits that bill.
Charles Melton
WOW! What a week for Charles Melton of Todd Haynes’s film May December. It wasn’t THAT much of a surprise that he won a Gotham Award for Best Supporting Performance, but it was he instead of Da’Vine Joy Randolph. Then when the NYFCC winners were announced, there’s Charles Melton again! Make him a top priority if he’s unowned in your league. I get the vibe that he could be that unpredictable critics darling we see every year only to then get snubbed for an Oscar nomination. That might not happen here, where he could get nominated, but right now, you’re just trying to fill your roster with point getters, not Oscar nomination locks.
Franz Rogowski
The leading man in Gotham-nominated Best Feature Passages, he was nominated for a Gotham Award, and then, in a complete shocker, he WON for Lead Actor at NYFCC. This could be ANOTHER critics darling like Charles Melton. Any winner at NYFCC should be considered. Last year, it was Keke Palmer who surprised, and she was a worthy pickup to snag a few points here and there even if she didn’t nominated for the elusive Oscar. I can see Rogowski turning this win into quite a few more nominations at other regional critics organizations, especially considering he has a bona fide win under his belt now.
Samy Burch
Another Gotham nominee and NYFCC winner is Samy Burch, writer of May December. May December is starting to pick up a lot of steam lately, and Samy Burch has now notched her first screenplay win at NYFCC. This was a surprise, so if she’s unowned in your league, you better nab her.
Molly Manning Walker
A multihyphenate CIN-DIR-SCRN for her debut How to Have Sex, she has double digit points all from the BIFA and European Film Awards. Both those bodies are announcing their winners for Matchup #2, so she’s worth a plug and play. After that, though, you can let her go. I really only see her getting any additional value for these first two matchups. But because she has Cinematography eligibility, plug her into your CIN/EDIT slot for Matchup #2 then drop her for someone you can play in Matchup #3 and beyond.
Actresses
I’m not quite sold on pulling the trigger on a waiver request for an actress yet, but if you feel differently or are desperate for an actress, consider these: Greta Lee, Teyana Taylor, Cailee Spaeny or maybe even Claire Foy or Penelope Cruz.
Below the Line
It’s way too early to suggest any waiver priorities for any below the line categories, but I will say that Alicia Keys has written a song for The Color Purple that we didn’t know about until now.
And while I’m at it, the VFX from The Marvels could be a sleeper visual effects pickup. VFX’s are more stash candidates, but the VFX race is really up in the air, and The Marvels do feature some pretty clean and effective visual effects that I won’t explain because I hate spoilers more than you do.
Nicolas Cage
And I have to, I’m sorry, half-seriously recommend Nicolas Cage for Dream Scenario. His performance is endearingly earnest, and I could see him getting a few points here and there. He could also snag an acting nomination at Golden Globes in Matchup #2 since a LOT of actors and actresss get points there since they split drama and comedy/musical performances.
Halle Bailey
And lastly, Halle Bailey is a soft dual threat for being a newcomer in two huge movies, The Little Mermaid and The Color Purple, while also writing a song for the latter, for which she has already earned a couple points at the Hollywood Music in Media Awards.
UPDATED WAIVER SUGGESTIONS BASED ON MICHIGAN
Zac Efron from The Iron Claw and Rachel McAdams from Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret.
That’s it for the waiver picks. Stay tuned for the subsequent podcast highlighting these waiver priorities along with a live look at the betting markets and, who knows, maybe a deeper dive into some more waiver potentials.
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