It has been a while since I’ve done a reaction, but the BAFTA’s are worthy of such a reaction. The BAFTA’s have their own quirks, but they do shed a little light on where film industry leaders are placing their preferences for award-worthy work, some of which who are also Academy Award voters. Let’s take a look at some of the more noteworthy nominations.
All Quiet on the Western Front Nabbed 14 Nominations
That’s a HUGE haul for the German entry to the Oscar International Picture race, a remake of the Best Picture winner from 1930. If this wasn’t the frontrunner for Best International Feature at the Academy Awards, it is now. Given the recent affinity for international pictures and directors at the Oscars, All Quiet on the Western Front seems poised to get into the Best Picture category. Beyond that, director Edward Berger is a candidate to get into the Best Director category. If any director of a foreign-language film has a chance of getting a Best Director nomination, it’s Berger. There are a lot of other categories in play too, all of which won’t be surprising if they’re included or, quite frankly, excluded. The technical categories are all crowded this year, so I doubt All Quiet on the Western Front will have as successful of a showing on Oscar nomination Tuesday, but we could be looking at a tie in nominations with another technical juggernaut in Top Gun: Maverick.
The Outstanding British Film Has Some Hidden Gems
The Banshees of Inisherin is the only film in this category to also score a Best Film nomination, but there are plenty of films here that are grossly underrated. My personal favorite from this list is the very dry, very quirky Brian and Charles, a mockumentary about an inventor who manufactures a robot companion and the hijinks they get into. Check it out; you won’t be disappointed. Another under-the-radar film is See How They Run, a funny whodunit anchored by Sam Rockwell and Saoirse Ronan. I’m glad to see these films represented in this category, even though the obvious frontrunner is The Banshees of Inisherin.
Gina Prince-Bythewood Gets a Best Director Nomination
One of my absolute favorite, if not the favorite, films of the year is The Woman King, helmed by Gina Prince-Bythewood getting knockout performances from newcomer Thuso Mbedu, magnetic Lashana Lynch, and the incomparable Viola Davis. Women directors are grossly underrepresented at the Academy Awards, and with Sarah Polley’s Women Talking struggling to get key precursor nominations, Gina Prince-Bythewood might be the best chance we have at not having an exclusively male Best Director lineup. I said earlier that I think Edward Berger gets a nomination, but that very well could be at the expense of excluding a woman director. However, no director really appears safe for a nomination. Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert are the closest contenders to being locked into nominations in a crowded field. Where does that leave all the others? Let’s say there’s a spot for Daniels, Gina Prince-Bythewood, and Edward Berger (or insert another foreign-language director like Decision to Leave‘s Park Chan-wook.) That means the remaining slots go to two of the following: Martin McDonagh, Todd Field, Steven Spielberg, Sarah Polley, James Cameron, Damien Chazelle, Baz Luhrmann, Joseph Kosinski, Charlotte Wells, or even Jordan Peele. Looking at that list, Gina Prince-Bythewood could be replaced. The BAFTA’s nominate six directors, and it’s entirely possible that if they had only nominated five, it would have been an all-male lineup like the DGA nominations.
The Documentary Nominations Could Go 5/5
If fantasy points have any predictive validity at all, especially in such a volatile category as Best Documentary, the top 5 fantasy documentaries that were also Oscar shortlisted (sorry Good Night Oppy) are the five BAFTA nominees, in order of fantasy points: Fire of Love, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, All That Breathes, Moonage Daydream, and Navalny. The first three feel safe, as safe as documentaries can be, while the other two could be replaced with other notable shortlisted documentaries including The Territory or Descendant.
The Four Animated Feature Nominees Will Get Oscar Nominations
As much as I would LOVE for an animated feature lineup feature four stop-motion animated films in Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Wendell & Wild, and Mad God, only the two former films are safe for an Oscar nomination. The other two BAFTA nominations, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish and Turning Red, are also very likely to get an Oscar nomination. That fifth spot is a complete toss-up. Wendell & Wild has the star power behind it while The Bad Guys has nice critical reviews. Or it could be Apollo 10½: A Space Age Childhood, which has showed up on quite a few recent nomination lists, Lightyear (Pixar should never be discounted), My Father’s Dragon, Inu-Oh, or even The Sea Beast or Luck.
All Four Acting Categories Have Three Safe Contenders
Lead Actress – Cate Blanchett, Michelle Yeoh, Danielle Deadwyler
Lead Actor – Brendan Fraser, Colin Farrell, Austin Butler
Supporting Actress – Angela Bassett, Kerry Condon, Jamie Lee Curtis
Supporting Actor – Ke Huy Quan, Brendan Gleeson, Barry Keoghan
The other two in each category will all be surprising with the inevitable snubs.
I do contend that Jamie Lee Curtis and Barry Keoghan are less safe than their lead acting counterparts, but they have the precursor nominations that seem to indicate an Oscar nomination is all but guaranteed.
Who fills the other two slots? My predictions:
Lead Actress – Viola Davis, Emma Thompson, Spoiler: Ana de Armas
Lead Actor – Bill Nighy, Adam Sandler, Spoiler: Paul Mescal or Tom Cruise
Supporting Actress: Stephanie Hsu, Hong Chau, Spoiler: Carey Mulligan
Supporting Actor: Eddie Redmayne, Judd Hirsch, Spoiler: Brian Tyree Henry
Good luck to all the nominees, and good luck with your own Oscar predictions!
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