If you know anything about fantasy sports and/or if you took a look at my strategy advice, then you know something about value-based drafting or value-based strategies for filling your roster. The idea is fairly simple, and to grasp the idea, you have to start with the basic fundamental of this very simple concept: Winning is scoring more points than your opponent. Duh, right? But many fantasy players are too enamored with players with high points without taking that thought one step further: how many MORE points is that player going to get you than your opponent’s player? Take a look at this basic example:
Let’s assume there are two teams with two players on each team: one PIC and one DIR/SCRN. PIC A earns 200 points and PIC B earns 190 points. DIR A earns 150 points and DIR B earns 120 points. A fantasy manager may take a look at that PIC A for 200 points and wants to have that on their team. In a normal serpentine draft, Team #1 selects PIC A while Team #2 selects DIR A then PIC B, leaving DIR B with Team #1. Team #1 now has a total of 320 points, 200 from PIC A and 120 points from DIR B. However Team #2 has 340 points, 190 from DIR A and 190 from PIC B. How can this be? Team #1 has the top scoring player in PIC A? Well the answer is simple. PIC A scored only 10 more points than PIC B, but DIR A scored 30 more points than DIR B. That’s a net difference of 20 points.
So as you can see, it’s about how much MORE points your players score than your opponents, not just scoring many points.
So how do you calculate value? There are many complex methods to calculate value, and things get pretty hairy when you include a FLEX position, let alone two which are the default settings in Red Carpet Rosters. However, we don’t need to overcomplicated things and keep it simple. All value-based calculations begin with the notion of how much more can your starter earn more than all other starters. Since most leagues work best with ten teams, that means that are ten starters in each position. So the value of each player is that player’s points minus the 10th player’s points in that same position. Some prefer to take the difference with the 11th player, because that’s the best replacement to an existing starter, but I prefer 10th just for the simple fact of how much more points can your player get than your opponent.
So let’s take a look at each position and the top 10 in each with their corresponding values. There are a few players with cross-eligibility. Whichever position gives them the most value is the table in which they are represented. Also, even though animated, international, and documentary films can be put into the PIC slot, all PIC’s are simply PIC’s.
PICTURE
| Player | Points | Value |
| Everything Everywhere All at Once | 65 | 46 |
| Glass Onion | 41 | 22 |
| Women Talking | 41 | 22 |
| The Banshees of Inisherin | 39 | 20 |
| Tár | 35 | 16 |
| Top Gun: Maverick | 32 | 13 |
| The Fabelmans | 28 | 9 |
| The Woman King | 26 | 7 |
| Elvis | 21 | 2 |
| Aftersun | 19 | 0 |
At the mid-point of the regular season, Everything Everywhere All at Once has HUGE value for a picture. It’s finding itself on pretty much all nomination lists and has seven wins so far. Glass Onion and Women Talking are tied for points, both being helpful by many Ensemble nominations and wins.
This exercise also highlights tiers. Right now Everything Everywhere All at Once is in a tier all by itself. Second tier includes Glass Onion, Women Talking, The Banshees of Inisherin, and Tár. Third tier is Top Gun: Maverick, The Fabelmans, and The Woman King. Elvis and Aftersun round out the top ten, and we could see more films crack the top ten by season’s end, as films like Nope and Avatar: The Way of Water get more points at more mainstream ceremonies.
DIRECTOR/SCREENPLAY
| Player | Points | Value |
| Martin McDonagh | 50 | 37 |
| Daniel Kwan | 50 | 37 |
| Daniel Scheinert | 50 | 37 |
| Charlotte Wells | 48 | 35 |
| Todd Field | 43 | 30 |
| Sarah Polley | 34 | 21 |
| Steven Spielberg | 30 | 17 |
| Ryan Coogler | 18 | 5 |
| Rian Johnson | 17 | 4 |
| Elegance Bratton | 13 | 0 |
Where is Ruben Östlund? Before you get too shook, realize that Ruben Östlund has EDIT eligibility.
Leagues are won and lost on the back of a strong DIR-SCRN. Notice how sharp the decline is from Steven Spielberg to Rian Johnson. And if you had Elegance Bratton being a top ten point getter, bravo because I’m not sure anybody else would’ve been able to discern that. The vast majority of Bratton’s points are coming from breakthrough categories, but Charlotte Wells is certainly stealing that spotlight. Anyone who was able to snag Charlotte Wells is nearly guaranteed to be doing well in their league.
ACTRESS
| Player | Points | Value |
| Michelle Yeoh | 36 | 23 |
| Cate Blanchett | 36 | 23 |
| Danielle Deadwyler | 24 | 11 |
| Kerry Condon | 24 | 11 |
| Frankie Corio | 16 | 3 |
| Stephanie Hsu | 16 | 3 |
| Jamie Lee Curtis | 15 | 2 |
| Janelle Monáe | 15 | 2 |
| Angela Bassett | 14 | 1 |
| Michelle Williams | 13 | 0 |
The acting positions, ACTRS and ACTR, have VERY pronounced tiers each year, and this year is shaping up to be no different. What’s different this year, though, is that the first tier is both vying for Lead Actress instead of one Lead and one Supporting as is often the case. Nevertheless, Michelle Yeoh and Cate Blanchett sit atop the ACTRS ranks with Danielle Deadwyler and Kerry Condon, who is increasingly generating buzz, form the second tier. Everyone else scoring points is third tier.
ACTOR
| Player | Points | Value |
| Ke Huy Quan | 43 | 34 |
| Colin Farrell | 38 | 29 |
| Austin Butler | 29 | 20 |
| Brendan Fraser | 24 | 15 |
| Brendan Gleeson | 23 | 14 |
| Paul Mescal | 20 | 11 |
| Bill Nighy | 14 | 5 |
| Brian Tyree Henry | 13 | 4 |
| Gabriel LaBelle | 13 | 4 |
| Mark Rylance, Barry Keoghan, or Jordan Peele | 9 | 0 |
The tiers aren’t quite as pronounced as the tiers in the ACTRS category, but we do see a more normal tier structure here. Two actors, one lead and one supporting, forming a top tier while three actors form the second tier, Austin Butler, Brendan Fraser, and Brendan Gleeson.
Also, Jordan Peele cracks the top ten because of his voiceover work in Wendell & Wild and The Bob’s Burgers Movie. Although his points are coming from directing and writing Nope, he becomes a sneaky pick up to fill an ACTR slot if you’re hurting.
ANI/INT/DOC
| Player | Points | Value |
| Fire of Love | 49 | 27 |
| All That Breathes | 44 | 22 |
| All the Beauty and the Bloodshed | 41 | 19 |
| RRR | 35 | 13 |
| Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio | 31 | 9 |
| Decision to Leave | 31 | 9 |
| Marcel the Shell with Shoes On | 25 | 3 |
| Moonage Daydream | 24 | 2 |
| Good Night Oppy | 22 | 0 |
| Nothing Compares | 22 | 0 |
The Red Carpet Rosters rules committee will re-evaluated documentary points. Documentaries get a special treatment. If a documentary earns points in ANY category, the points go to the documentary. Any documentary centric awards, heavy in Matchup #1, documentaries earn a disproportionate amount of points. That’s why you see six of the top ten being documentaries. This listing will change as more INT and ANI players get points while documentary points start being even more distributed.
CIN/EDIT
| Player | Points | Value |
| Claudio Miranda (Top Gun: Maverick) | 27 | 18 |
| Paul Rogers (Everything Everywhere All at Once) | 16 | 7 |
| Ruben Östlund (Triangle of Sadness) | 14 | 5 |
| Eddie Hamilton (Top Gun: Maverick) | 12 | 3 |
| Monika Willi (Tár) | 10 | 1 |
| James Cameron (Avatar: The Way of Water) | 10 | 1 |
| Jonathan Redmond (Elvis) | 9 | 0 |
| Matt Villa (Elvis) | 9 | 0 |
| Hoyte van Hoytema (Nope) | 9 | 0 |
| Blair McClendon (Aftersun) or Kogonada (After Yang) | 9 | 0 |
Every year there is a Cinematographer that forms a tier all by themselves, and this year it appears to be Claudio Miranda. The difference this year is that it wasn’t so clearcut at the beginning of the season who it would be. Sure Claudio Miranda owners are happy with the results, but everyone else isn’t in trouble because up until now, the difference between the second most valuable CIN/EDIT and the tenth is only 7 points for the entire season so far.
PD/CD/MUAH
| Player | Points | Value |
| Catherine Martin (Elvis) | 18 | 11 |
| Ruth E. Carter (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever) | 11 | 4 |
| Gersha Phillips (The Woman King) | 10 | 3 |
| Florencia Martin (Babylon) | 9 | 2 |
| Hannah Beachler (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever) | 9 | 2 |
| Dylan Cole (Avatar: The Way of Water) | 9 | 2 |
| Ben Procter (Avatar: The Way of Water) | 9 | 2 |
| Karen Murphy (Elvis) | 9 | 2 |
| Jason Kisvarday (Everything Everywhere All at Once) | 7 | 0 |
| Mary Zophres (Babylon) or Jenny Beavan (Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris) | 7 | 0 |
Catherine Martin is a dual threat being both Production Designer and Costume Designer of Elvis. We’re just now getting to awards that honor more technical awards. Hardly any ceremonies have honored makeup and hairstyling, explaining the omissions of any MUAH from this table. That’s why it’s important to stash away a MUAH for the matchups that has the Makeup and Hairstyling Guild Awards nominations, because that’s where the value is and can be the difference between a win and a loss. Even so, this is the part of the starting lineup that doesn’t offer a ton of value right now.
But you better believe, this spot can make or break you in the playoffs. If you miss here on that first round of the playoffs, chances are your opponent didn’t. Here it’s not about scoring more points than your opponent, it’s more about not missing out on points at all.
SCORE/SONG/SOUND/VFX
| Player | Points | Value |
| Alexandre Desplat | 26 | 12 |
| Michael Giacchino | 20 | 6 |
| Ludwig Göransson | 18 | 4 |
| Ryan Coogler | 18 | 4 |
| Hildur Guðnadóttir | 17 | 3 |
| Guillermo del Toro | 16 | 2 |
| Rihanna | 16 | 2 |
| M.M. Keeravani | 15 | 1 |
| Justin Hurwitz | 15 | 1 |
| Tems | 14 | 0 |
This is definitely the quirkiest category for a couple reasons. Each year there are several directors, writers, and/or actors and actresses who help co-write an original song, increasing their value even for the simple fact that it gives them SONG eligibility. Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert are prime examples of this because they did co-write an original song for Everything Everywhere All at Once, but not the one that has gotten points and not the one that will be eligible for the Oscar shortlist, let alone get an Oscar nomination. In fact, the Daniels have not earned ANY points for song, but the reason they sat atop the pre-draft rankings was not only because we knew they would get plenty of directing and writing points, but because they can camp out in someone’s SCORE/SONG/SOUND/VFX slot all season. Daniels, though, have more value as DIR-SCRN so far, just because when you get to the tenth DIR-SCRN, there are not many points to go around.
Another quirk of this category is the absence of VFX and SOUND at many ceremonies, especially the latter. Nearly every ceremony recognizes a composer, making them highly valuable for this category. But like MUAH, having a strong SOUND or VFX will pay dividends when the Motion Picture Sound Editors, Cinema Audio Society, and Visual Effects Society announce their nominations. A solid winning strategy is stashing a strong SOUND on your bench and unleashing it whenever MPSE and CAS announce their nominations, one of few categories that have two guilds recognizing their work. This was especially true when the Oscars still split their sound award into sound editing and sound mixing, so on Oscar nomination Tuesday, a.k.a. the first round of the fantasy playoffs, a strong SOUND was a huge advantage.
Top Ten MVP’s
| Player | Position | Points | Value |
| Everything Everywhere All at Once | PIC | 65 | 46 |
| Martin McDonagh | DIR-SCRN | 50 | 37 |
| Daniel Kwan | DIR-SCRN-SONG | 50 | 37 |
| Daniel Scheinert | DIR-SCRN-SONG | 50 | 37 |
| Charlotte Wells | DIR-SCRN | 48 | 35 |
| Ke Huy Quan | ACTR | 43 | 34 |
| Todd Field | DIR-SCRN | 43 | 30 |
| Colin Farrell | ACTR | 38 | 29 |
| Fire of Love | DOC | 49 | 27 |
| Michelle Yeoh | ACTRS | 36 | 23 |
| Cate Blanchett | ACTRS | 36 | 23 |
Remember when I said that if you had a top draft pick that you better be spending it on a DIR-SCRN? Well here’s the proof. Five of the top ten valuable players are DIR-SCRN’s. It’s fairly rare for a PIC to be the top valuable player, but here we are. Of course when half of the top ten players are from one film, it doesn’t seem so strange.
The biggest surprise here is, of course, Charlotte Wells. She was undrafted in some leagues and went in late rounds in others. Charlotte Wells is absolutely a steal, because if a team was able to snag one or more of these players in an early round in addition to nabbing Charlotte Wells, then that’s probably the team favored to win your league.
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