The New York Critics Circle always offers some surprises, but one thing is certain: a win here will mean there will be wins later. Maybe those wins won’t translate to an Oscar nomination (Lady Gaga won Best Actress last year for House of Gucci, but was not nominated for an Oscar as one example), but like I said in my first waiver wire rankings, if a winner is on waivers, you need to put in a request right now, at least as a speculative add.
Let’s dive deeper.
Tár wins Best Film
Here we are again with Tár winning Best Film, this time at the well-established NYFCC. In many cases, Tár was at least the fourth film (after The Fabelmans, Everything Everywhere All at Once, and Women Talking) taken off draft boards, so any team manager who waited on PIC is looking pretty savvy.
S.S. Rajamouli wins Best Director
Earlier I wrote that Happening might be this year’s Portrait of a Lady on Fire, a film that was not its country’s official submissions but could offer some good value in regular season matchups. I still think that. But RRR is something else. I’m really struggling to find an analogous film from previous years, but maybe I only have to go back to last year when Spain selected The Good Boss over Parallel Mothers. The Good Boss was shut out at the Oscars, but Parallel Mothers managed to get nominations for actress Penelope Cruz and composer Alberto Iglesias. Notice, it was not for Pedro Almodóvar. So S.S. Rajamouli winning here for RRR, a film that is somehow generating buzz despite India’s preference for its official submission of Last Film Show, is hard to gauge. Wins are hard to come by, and the director race is quite crowded. However this may seem to indicate that the top tier of directors is not as separated from everyone else as we originally thought.
The Academy Awards has a nice streak of foreign directors getting a nomination, but those were all for films that were also their country’s official submission. RRR doesn’t have that luxury, which realistically, albeit unjustifiably, hurts RRR‘s and S.S. Rajamouli’s fantasy stock and chances at an Oscar nomination. However, jump on that waiver wire to snag S.S. Rajamouli as at least a speculative add.
Is Brendan Fraser a fantasy bust?
I said before I’ll reassess Brendan Fraser as a fantasy asset after the New York Film Critics Circle announcements if he didn’t win. He didn’t win. That honor went to Colin Farrell, for his work in both After Yang and The Banshees of Inisherin. Now all of a sudden, Brendan Fraser doesn’t look so top tier, which I’m sure is driving his owners nuts given his hefty draft price, often going off draft boards in the first round.
It’s WAY too early to call him a bust right now, but last year we had Ann Dowd from the grossly underseen Mass. In October last year, Ann Dowd seemed to be poised to earn a whole bunch of nominations and wins. She was a fairly decent fantasy point contributor, but nowhere near top tier. Are we seeing the same thing happen to Brendan Fraser? Early signs do seems to point that way, but Brendan Fraser was getting more buzz, where some were saying he’s a lock for a win let alone a nomination, than Ann Dowd who was touted as being a near lock for a nomination but maybe not an Oscar win. So given that increased buzz, I’m not calling him a bust yet, but buzz doesn’t get managers a point. If only Tweets and prediction lists got teams points…
So what are the things stacked against Brendan Fraser right now? There were 11 actors and actresses who were able to get both a Gotham and Independent Spirit Award nomination. Brendan Fraser is not one of those 11, getting snubbed at Indie Spirits. Although the Sunset Circle Awards operates outside the traditional regional critics organizations, they do share something in common with the New York Film Critics Circle (aside from Tár getting Best Film): they both didn’t give Brendan Fraser a win in Best Actor. If you were a Brendan Fraser owner and missed your chance at getting Paul Mescal off waivers as a handcuff for your ACTR slot, then you might’ve missed a golden opportunity to account for you drafting a potential bust. Again, too early to tell, but missing at Indie Spirits and missing at NYFCC is hard to ignore.
Keke Palmer wins Bets Supporting Actress
Let’s hear it for horror getting some recognition! This was arguably the most surprising win out of the whole announcement, but I applaud it. Best Supporting Actress is the most wide open major race for the Oscar, so it is nice to see Keke Palmer here, which may result in other groups at least nominating Palmer for their awards. Horror actresses have done reasonably well in regular seasons in previous seasons, so it looks like Keke Palmer might be that inevitable critics darling who will sadly be snubbed on Oscar nomination Tuesday.
Claudio Miranda gets a CIN win for Top Gun: Maverick
I don’t know if this is a surprise or not, but this only reinforces Claudio Miranda’s near-lock status for an Oscar nomination.
Marcel!
I, and just about everyone else, adores Marcel the Shell with Shoes On. The recent decision that makes Marcel eligible for Best Animated Feature at the Oscars only increases its stock. Of course the win here meant that Pinocchio didn’t win, but Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio will get plenty of wins along the way. And traditional animation, whatever that is, is underperforming this year. It’s entirely possible, if not likely, that three stop-motion animated movies will have their name called on Oscar nomination Tuesday: Pinocchio, Wendell and Wild, and Marcel the Shell with Shoes On. Maybe with three nominations, one of those can become the first stop-motion Best Animated Feature.
EO finally joins the conversation
EO is on many lists as that first in/first out for a Best International Feature. A win here is a good sign, and if you drafted an underperforming doc, EO could potentially come to your rescue.
Charlotte Wells continues to dominate Breakthrough
That’s all.
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