The State of the Documentary Race

The International Documentary Association (IDA) announced their nominations on November 11th and the Critics Choice Association announced their winners for the Documentary Awards (CCDA) on November 13th. We’re now up to four major nomination announcements for documentaries: Critics Choice (which announced winners yesterday), Gotham, Cinema Eye, and International Doc Association. Not one documentary had their name called for Best Doc at all four of these announcements, but four documentaries appear on three of the four lists.

The rules at Red Carpet Rosters make an exception for documentaries in which ANY nomination or win for a documentary gives points to the documentary as a whole. That makes documentaries hot commodities for the first matchup. The Red Carpet Rosters Rules Committee may take a look at this for next year, but for right now, the rule stands. The catch, though, is that documentaries are really risky. They are high ceiling-low floor, and selecting a documentary that happens to be the latter can sink your team. At any rate, let’s take a look at the top 9 documentaries so far in Red Carpet Rosters (there are four docs tied for tenth at 8 points apiece):

1. All That Breathes (26 points) – All That Breathes only missed a Critics Choice nominee for Best Documentary. Currently, it leads all other documentaries, helped by the Pare Lorentz prize at the IDA’s. That win alone accounts for the difference between All That Breathes and the second place documentary. All That Breathes certainly has many things going right for it, winning Best Doc at both Sundance and Cannes while having captivating subject matter. Not getting a nom at Critics Choice, which nominate ten films, is a little worrisome, though. The last Oscar winner to miss a CCDA Best Doc nomination is Icarus, but that at least won Best Sports Doc at the 2nd CCDA’s in 2017. All That Breathes did not win either Cinematography or Best Nature Doc at CCDA. All That Breathes is paying dividends in Matchup #1. It remains to be seen if that success continues in other matchups that are not so doc heavy.
2. Fire of Love (23 points) – Gotham was the only ceremony that shut out Fire of Love for Best Doc, but I would argue that this doesn’t hurt Fire of Love‘s stock too much. According to fantasy points, the documentary nominees at Gotham represent the #1, #3, #4, #16, and #32 docs. What We Leave Behind has missed everywhere else, so Fire of Love missing at the Gothams doesn’t seem so insurmountable. If it wasn’t for the Pare Lorentz Award for All That Breathes, Fire of Love would be leading all documentaries. It also has a win at CCDA (Best Archival Doc), something that All That Breathes does not have. It also has popular appeal, being the #4 grossing documentary of 2022 so far. I consider this as the current frontrunner for Oscar gold and don’t be surprised if this becomes the #1 documentary at season’s end. It likely won’t be the leading ANI/INT/DOC film, but if you’re a Fire of Love owner, don’t fret.
3. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (18 points) – All the Beauty and the Bloodshed and All That Breathes are the two documentaries that only missed the CCDA Best Doc nomination. Also like All That Breathes, it doesn’t have a CCDA win either. There are some good things going for it, though, especially because it screened at all four major film festivals, a rarity among Oscar contenders. Expect these two documentaries to end up with comparable points by season’s end.
4. The Territory (16 points) – Somehow The Territory is #4 in points, despite missing both CCDA and IDA for Best Doc. The Territory, though, is helped because a first-time director is behind it, which really serves as bonus points for The Territory. It also has National Geographic behind it. What it doesn’t have is any CCDA wins, losing its three nominations of Best First Doc (Bad Axe), Best Cinematography (Our Great National Parks, which isn’t even eligible in Red Carpet Rosters), and Best Nature Doc (Good Night Oppy.) The current #4 standing for The Territory is in danger. Temper expectations.
5. Nothing Compares (14 points) – The first music documentary to make the list is Nothing Compares, a portrait of Sinead O’Connor. Like The Territory, this #5 standing is too high because it doesn’t have any CCDA wins. Unlike The Territory, though, it has zero Best Doc nominations among Gothams, CCDA, CEH, and IDA. The only Best Doc nomination it has is at the British Independent Film Awards (BIFA), which gave Nothing Compares three of its seven total nominations of the season (Best Doc, Best First Feature, and Best Editing.) Cinema Eye Honors also gave it three nominations (Score, Debut, and Audience Choice. It did receive an “Unforgettables” nomination, but that doesn’t count for points at Red Carpet Rosters because it’s a non-competitive award.) That’s six of its seven nominations coming from two ceremonies (IDA nominated it for Best Music Doc for the 7th nomination.) It did get two nominations at CCDA, but no wins, meaning no points because the CCDA nominations were announced before the regular season started. Time to press the panic button on this one. Yes, this is the highest music doc on the list, but there’s another music doc that will leverage for position, Moonage Daydream. Nothing Compares is nothing more than a plug and play for Matchup #1. Don’t put it in your starting lineup unless you’re desperate hereafter.
6. A House Made of Splinters (12 points) – Are you surprised this is as high as #6? Yeah, me too. Here’s how A House Made of Splinters earned its 12 points: three nominations at IDA (Best Feature, Best Director, and Best Cinematography), two nominations at CEH (Outstanding Production and Outstanding Cinematography), and one nominations for Best Doc at the European Film Awards (EFA.) It got zero nominations at CCDA and everywhere else. It also has a real chance to snag that win from EFA given the other nominees. However, that would be the only win for Best Doc in the foreseeable future. The competition is just too stiff, even if the IDA really liked it.
7. Moonage Daydream (11 points) – The highest grossing documentary of 2022 (so far) is Moonage Daydream, which only helps its stock. What hurts it is that it’s a music doc and there’s another worthy music doc of Nothing Compares that will likely split the vote in any kind of non-music doc award. However, Moonage Daydream does have a win under its belt, a Best Music Doc from CCDA. Then again, FOUR of its five nominations came from CEH, which means it missed a lot of other places. That’s troubling.
8. Good Night Oppy (9 points) – Good Night Oppy looked dead in the water until it snagged FIVE wins at CCDA, accounting for five points since critics organizations nominations and wins are worth one point apiece. Anyone who drafted Good Night Oppy was relieved to see it win so many CCDA awards, especially because they may have seen how many nominations it got at the CCDA nominations announcement before the regular season started. The only other nominations for points for Good Night Oppy is an Audience Choice nom from CEH and Best Score from IDA, two nominations that don’t exactly spark confidence. But those FIVE wins at CCDA are hard to ignore. Plus it’s a little bit of a heartstring puller. Even though Good Night Oppy has underwhelmed in the doc heavy Matchup #1, I’d still rather have it on my team than the fifth through seventh documentaries on this list, and maybe even the fourth. It’s too early to overreact with Good Night Oppy.
9. Navalny (9 points) – Navalny joins Fire of Love as being nominated for Best Doc at CCDA, CEH, and IDA, missing out on a Gotham nomination. It’s just struggled to gain traction in the other lesser nominations, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing. It won CCDA for Best Political Documentary, and it’s backed by HBO and CNN. The only other additional nominations came from CEH for Outstanding Production and Audience Choice. However, it’s only one of four documentaries to get three of the four major precursors, which is hard to ignore, especially because the next matchups don’t have a lot of doc-specific technical awards.

And there you have it, the top nine fantasy documentaries so far this season. If I had to guess, the top 5 documentaries by season’s end would be, in no order, All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Fire of Love, Good Night Oppy, and Navalny. The Territory might crash that list. Those five also seem to be a fairly safe pick for the five Oscar nominees, too, but I can almost guarantee that AT LEAST two of those six will be shut out of the Oscar nominations. Which two? That I don’t know.