Matchup #2 is all but in the books, and in hindsight, this matchup should’ve been shorter. But when the matchup schedule was finalized, we didn’t know when the AFI was going to announce their top ten films of the year, not to mention nomination announcements from regional critics groups such as Las Vegas Film Critics Society and Washington DC Area Film Critics Association, to name a couple more. Ah the intricacies of a head-to-head format in film awards fantasy leagues! I wouldn’t have it any other way.
More importantly than my hindsight being 20/20 is that Matchup #2 is really the first chance we get to see how the rest of the regular season is likely to shake out. Matchup #1 does offer a few hints to it, including Charles Melton from May December becoming a top waiver priority, but we don’t really get a sense of how our teams will fare in the remaining eight matchups plus the eventual playoffs if our team is lucky enough to get there. Now because a handful of regional critics associations, the National Board of Review, AND the AFI Top Ten are known, we have a good, albeit small, sample size to see which players on our team will help, or hurt, us getting to the playoffs.
We also have some more mainstream technical awards nominations and/or wins to see if we can glean any kind of substantial value in those so-called “below-the-line” categories. There aren’t as many points to go around in general, but in the, for example, SCORE/SONG/SOUND/VFX spot on your team, there will be a minimum of TWENTY Oscar nominees (more because most of the song contenders have multiple songwriters) as opposed to the ACTR spot, which will only have ten (five for lead and five for supporting). In other words, in the first round of the playoffs, the fifteenth SCORE/SONG/SOUND/VFX suddenly becomes more valuable than the fifteenth ACTR.
Let’s take a look at some potential unowned players you should have on your team.
Glenn Howerton
The supporting actor from BlackBerry, Glenn Howerton is a priority add if you need an actor or a flex spot. He did get nominated at both the Gothams and Independent Spirit Awards, but he’s also been nominated at some regional critics awards. Again, that’s a small sample size but hard to ignore. The wins will be hard to come by, but getting nominated this many times will lead to some great points for your team.
Greta Lee
Lead actress from Past Lives, Greta Lee, has now been nominated at a few regional critics, plus Gothams and Independent Spirit. Past Lives is getting a lot of buzz, and Lee is starting to convert that into a few nominations for her effort. The wins will be scarcer, but she would be a nice replacement if you spent a draft pick on someone like Cailee Spaeny who has yet to make an impact.
Dominic Sessa
Dominic Sessa has a chance to nab some great breakthrough and youth acting points for his supporting turn in The Holdovers. Most ceremonies combine actors and actresses into these categories, if they give them in the first place, but Sessa appears poised to appear on many of these lists. He has somewhat of a low ceiling because I doubt he’s going to get many general acting nominations, but in a traditionally thin pool of youth actors, he’s worth consideration.
Abby Ryder Fortson
Another youth actress with her role in Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret, Abby Ryder Fortson will undoubtedly appear everywhere there is a youth actress award. Not all ceremonies honor these youth awards, but she can nab a few easy and safe points.
Samy Burch
I recommended her last time, and I’m doing it again this time since she’s unowned in a lot of leagues. May December is a rare movie where if one thing is off, it becomes absolutely abominable. But the thing is, everything about it is tweaked to perfection, and that begins with Samy Burch’s masterful script. Being a first-timer probably hurts her a little bit, and she only has SCRN category designation, so her ceiling is a little low, but she’s worth rostering all over to at least fill a FLEX spot.
May December
Speaking of May December, if this is still somehow unowned in your league, put in a waiver request right now. Nothing on the AFI Top Ten should go unowned. Period.
Kelly Fremon Craig
She now has several screenplay nominations with critics for her adaptation of Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret. This coming-of-age movie was highly praised with critics, so I imagine she’ll get a few more screenplay nominations. She does have the appealing DIR-SCRN designation, but the director field is way too crowded to consider her a dual threat at this point. Still, she’s worth a roster spot.
Godzilla Minus One and Godzilla Minus One VFX
Godzilla Minus One has exploded onto the scene and is getting some much-deserved buzz with the movie itself and its visual effects. In fact, it was one of the twenty films that are advancing to the next round of consideration for the Academy Award for Visual Effects. This is significant because other films like The Little Mermaid, Blue Beetle, and Oppenheimer missed this cut. Critics are appearing to start rallying around this film. The potential is capped because Japan didn’t select Godzilla Minus One has their official submission, and I highly doubt it’s going to get a Best Picture nomination at the Oscars, but there is good point potential here for the film itself, but even more potential for its visual effects to pop up a few more times. The visual effects branch of the Academy Awards do like to recognize creature effects, and you don’t get much more creature-y than Godzilla.
Fallen Leaves
Finland’s official submission for the Academy Awards, Fallen Leaves has popped up a few times in Best International Feature nomination lists. If you’re desperate to fill the ANI/INT/DOC spot, you can do worse.
Tótem
Mexico’s official submission for the Academy Awards, Tótem has three nominations: Gothams, Indie Spirit, and National Board of Review. Critics haven’t nominated it yet, but this can be treated as a speculative add if you can spare the roster spot.
Nathan Orloff
The editor from John Wick: Chapter 4 is an unlikely Oscar nomination, but there seems to be some buzz generating around the John Wick technical that could earn him some good points for editing. I would also not be surprised if the American Cinema Editors (ACE) throw an Eddie nomination his way too.
Dariusz Wolski
I always try to keep an eye on cinematographers throughout the season, because of all the technical categories, CIN and SCORE seem to be at pretty much every ceremony. Enter Dariusz Wolski for shooting Napoleon. All the other cinematographers are drafted, but if you’re desperate, Wolski could gain some traction.
PD/CD/MUAH – Anyone with critics noms
As of this writing, anyone with critics points instead of industry points are at least worth consideration. In other words, look for the ones with critics nominations and not the ones from European Film Awards and/or British Independent Film Awards.
John Wick: Chapter 4
The potential is capped at stunts and genre awards, which are substantially less than Best Picture, but this film will likely win all of them, cornering the Action and Stunt market. Pick it up, plug it in when there are enough stunt awards (including SAG noms), and get a handful of easy points.
Jack Black
Jack Black and his co-songwriters Aaron Horvath, Michael Jelenic, John Spiker, and Eric Osmond have a few nominations under their belt now, including a Golden Globe nomination. The song category is crowded, but Peaches from The Super Mario Bros. Movie is becoming a song that can appear alongside those Barbie songs on nomination lists.
Robot Dreams
If Robot Dreams only won the European Film Award for Best Animated Feature, which it did, I wouldn’t consider it. But it also has four critics nominations/runner-up points in Matchup #2. While Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse and The Boy and the Heron are trading wins, it’s nice to have another animated film that can at least get nominations if you missed on this category in the draft.
Drop Candidates
If you’re active on the waiver wire, that also means you have to drop someone. I get it, dropping a player is hard to do. After all, at some point you liked them enough to put them on your team, so it’s really hard to cut them loose. You and I both have major FOMO along with the desire to be loyal with your picks. But your opponents are hoping you just hold onto your players so they can nab all those worthwhile waivers. Anyway, here are some drop candidates to make room for your new and exciting players.
Cailee Spaeny
She should’ve gotten some more noms by now, even if she did get a Golden Globe nomination Nonetheless, her lead actress turn as the titular Priscilla appears to be at a standstill. The actress race is too loaded to hold on to her. Yes, she’ll get a few points, but there are way more players with higher potential than Spaeny. Consider anything, besides maybe production design and costume design, from Prisclla as dead in the water.
Anything from The Bikeriders
The qualifying run for The Bikeriders is next year, so this is an easy one. If you have ANYTHING from The Bikeriders, drop it because it will net you exactly zero points (or REALLY close to it.)
Anything from Origin
I’m still a little hopeful that this will pick up steam, but Ava DuVernay’s film Origin seems to be stuck in the mud. I was really high on this one, but I’m afraid I got this one wrong. Cut them loose, and if they happen to pick up steam later, just put in a waiver request for them. Ava DuVernay does have a little standalone value, so if you want to hold on to her, I can support that.
The Mission
Really any documentary that is struggling can be dropped, but The Mission is most notable because despite the NatGeo generating buzz before October, it has failed to get ANY points. By now, any documentary worth anything got at least a point or two, and if they haven’t, time to drop ‘em.
Emerald Fennell
As much as Saltburn is deserving to be in the conversation, there just aren’t enough points to go around, and Fennell is on the outside looking in at most of these ceremonies. Although appealing that she can sit in the ACTRS slot, she just doesn’t seem to be getting the points.
Kristoffer Borgli
The multi-hyphenate Kristoffer Borgli was a potential sleeper with Dream Scenario, but he has laid a goose egg. You can safely drop him.
Ridley Scott
He only has DIR designation, and the Director field is WAY too crowded. He hasn’t scored any points yet, and I would honestly be surprised if he scored any points at all. Mildly surprised, but surprised nonetheless.
The Little Mermaid VFX
Oppenheimer VFX will get points before the Oscars, so don’t drop them yet. However, the VFX from The Little Mermaid can be dropped for something else.
And that’s all the waiver advice I can muster! As always, the best way to see which waivers are available is to peruse the Waiver Wire in your own league.
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