Welcome to Red Carpet Rosters Podcast, your hub for film awards fantasy advice, betting advice, some history, and the Academy Awards themselves. I am your host, John Richards of RedCarpetRosters.com, and welcome to this short bonus episode where we highlight early betting picks! If you followed me last year, you came out like gangbusters! On the blog, here are the notable hits:
I suggested Jamie Lee Curtis thrice, at +160, +450, and a whopping +1800 before the nominations even came out.
Daniels when it was paying +700.
Ruth E. Carter at +200.
Michelle Yeoh at +200, +190, +110, and -125.
Everything Everywhere All at Once to win Best Picture was something like -2000 before Oscar night. I suggested it at -165 and +150.
Top Gun Sound at +125.
Brendan Fraser at +120, +100, -150, -150 again, and -185.
The short film An Irish Goodbye at +115 and +110.
And lastly, Ke Huy Quan was something like -3000, or something absolutely ridiculous like that. I got him at -275, above my -200 threshold, but I knew I could lock that one in early.
So make sure you’re subscribing so you don’t miss out on these betting picks because they change often and quickly.
I don’t have the luxury of living in a state that allows Oscar betting on some sites, like DraftKings, so I prefer to use Bovada, BetUS, and MyBookie. If you find similar odds at your preferred sportsbook, then gravy.
Full disclosure, I don’t really like betting too early on the Oscars. There are just too many unknowns, but that won’t stop me at taking a LIVE look here. That’s right, I’m looking as live as I can, so there will be little editing of this podcast. Record, upload, post. Let’s do this!
As always I will give you the betting line, the implied probability from that betting line, and unless I specify otherwise, I’m assuming one full betting unit.
I think most people would agree that this is a two-horse race between Oppenheimer and Killers of the Flower Moon. The betting lines also point that direction.
| Platform | Category | Pick | Betting Line | I.P. | Bet? |
| Bovada | Best Actor | Cillian Murphy | -120 | 54.5% | Yes |
| Bovada | Best Actress | Emma Stone | 150 | 40.0% | No |
| Bovada | Best Actress | Lily Gladstone | 150 | 40.0% | No |
| Bovada | Best Actress | Annette Bening | 600 | 14.3% | No |
| Bovada | Best Actress | Carey Mulligan | 500 | 16.7% | No |
| Bovada | Best Director | Christopher Nolan | -160 | 61.5% | Yes |
| Bovada | Best Director | Martin Scorsese | 200 | 33.3% | No |
| Bovada | Best Picture | Oppenheimer | 150 | 40.0% | Yes |
| Bovada | Best Picture | Killers of the Flower Moon | 300 | 25.0% | Yes |
| Bovada | Best Picture | Past Lives | 1000 | 9.1% | No |
| Bovada | Best Picture | Barbie | 1800 | 5.3% | No |
| BetUS | Best Picture | Oppenheimer | -125 | 55.6% | No |
| BetUS | Best Picture | Killers of the Flower Moon | 165 | 37.7% | No |
| BetUS | Best Picture | Past Lives | 1100 | 8.3% | No |
| BetUS | Best Picture | Barbie | 1400 | 6.7% | No |
| BetUS | Best Director | Christopher Nolan | 110 | 47.6% | Yes |
| BetUS | Best Director | Martin Scorsese | 500 | 16.7% | Yes |
| BetUS | Best Actress | Emma Stone | 100 | 50.0% | No |
| BetUS | Best Actress | Lily Gladstone | 350 | 22.2% | Yes |
| BetUS | Best Actress | Annette Bening | 700 | 12.5% | No |
| BetUS | Best Actress | Carey Mulligan | 600 | 14.3% | No |
| BetUS | Best Actor | Cillian Murphy | -150 | 60.0% | Yes |
| BetUS | Best Supporting Actress | Lily Gladstone | 200 | 33.3% | No |
| BetUS | Best Supporting Actress | Da’Vine Joy Randolph | 300 | 25.0% | Yes |
| BetUS | Best Supporting Actor | Robert Downey Jr. | 100 | 50.0% | No |
| BetUS | Best Supporting Actor | Ryan Gosling | 1000 | 9.1% | Yes |
| MyBookie | Best Actor | Cillian Murphy | -120 | 54.5% | Yes |
| MyBookie | Best Actress | Emma Stone | 137 | 42.2% | No |
| MyBookie | Best Actress | Lily Gladstone | 152 | 39.7% | No |
| MyBookie | Best Actress | Carey Mulligan | 285 | 26.0% | No |
| MyBookie | Best Actress | Annette Bening | 340 | 22.7% | No |
| MyBookie | Best Director | Christopher Nolan | -145 | 59.2% | Yes |
| MyBookie | Best Director | Martin Scorsese | 200 | 33.3% | No |
| MyBookie | Best Picture | Oppenheimer | 120 | 45.5% | Yes |
| MyBookie | Best Picture | Killers of the Flower Moon | 250 | 28.6% | Yes |
So that’s the betting market right now. Stay tuned for future episodes where I will get more aggressive on the markets as the season progresses.
Speaking of the season, the regular season kicked off with the Gotham Awards Nominations last Tuesday. The Gothams are always quirky and full of surprises. In my humble opinion, there are no snubs at the Gothams, only surprises. You can find the Gotham Awards Nominations online, so I won’t hash them out here. It’s also worth noting that Oppenheimer and Killers of the Flower Moon did NOT submit their films for consideration, but that didn’t stop Lily Gladstone, who plays Mollie Burkhardt in Killers of the Flower Moon, from getting a nomination from another film. This helps her, so this boosts her stock, even if it wasn’t for Killers of the Flower Moon. I’ve always considered her a lock for an Oscar nomination, and anyone owning Gladstone in their fantasy leagues has to be happy about the bonus points.
Another name whose stock just rose is Ryan Gosling, who was nominated for Barbie. I loved this movie, but if the Gothams nominated him, I feel like he can get nominated everywhere. Ryan Gosling owners have to be ecstatic about this nomination, because it certainly bodes well for future ceremonies (i.e. future points.) I always say to not overreact with the Gothams, and this is me overreacting to the Gothams, but if you are in a league that skips Matchup #1, bump Ryan Gosling up in your rankings.
Remember I said that there are no snubs at the Gothams. I still think that’s true, but where in the world was Poor Things? It only got nominated for Best International Feature. No Emma Stone, No Mark Ruffalo, No Willem Dafoe, no Tony McNamara for writing it. I’m not overreacting, but anyone who went heavy into Poor Things has to be disappointed.
Is it too early to sound the panic alarm on Cord Jefferson? He was supposed to be the market cornerer, if you will, with Celine Song of Past Lives, but he failed to get a nomination for American Fiction while Celine Song did. Did I pick the wrong debut director and screenwriter? If you listened to my podcast earlier, we tabbed A.V. Rockwell as a sleeper pick for her debut A Thousand and One. Well she got nominated AND A Thousand and One itself got nominated for Best Feature. If A.V. Rockwell is undrafted in your league, put in a waiver request right now. If you have Cord Jefferson, don’t drop him yet. Again, don’t overreact to a Gotham miss!
I’m also calling it right now. Past Lives is going to win the Gothams. If any movie can pull a CODA like upset, it’s Past Lives. I don’t think it will because CODA upset Netflix’s The Power of the Dog for reasons you already know.
And rapid fire….
Glad to see 20 Days in Mariupol get a nomination, and I still think it’s a dual threat for points being Ukraine’s official Oscar submission.
Glad They Cloned Tyrone got some love with a Jamie Foxx nomination.
Don’t discount Are You There God? It’s Me Margaret. The documentary Judy Blume Forever got nominated for a Critics Choice Award for Best Doc, and now Rachel McAdams shows up with a Best Supporting nom here. This bodes well for her as well as youth actress Abby Ryder Fortsom.
Teyana Taylor, sleeper pick from last podcast, also showed up in the nominations for Lead Performance. Anatomy of a Fall had a good showing with Best International and Best Screenplay for Justine Triet and Arthur Harari. Sandra Huller also picked up a nomination, but for The Zone of Interest, which seems to solidify her as a dual threat.
And speaking of The Zone of Interest, why did I not start Jonathan Glazer?
That’s it for me! Turn on notifications for future episodes of this podcast. Thank you to Patrick Richards for writing the show music exclusively for Red Carpet Rosters Podcast. This is John. Thanks for listening. See you next time.
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