Draft Strategy 105 – Technicals

by Paulo Bautista, Host of the Oscars Death Race Podcast

Introduction and Review

Welcome to the finale of my five-part series on draft advice for the 2023-2024 Red Carpet Rosters season!

In case you missed parts 1-4, check the links below:

• Part 1 where I go over my overall methodology and provide some sample mock drafts
• Part 2 where I go over Best Picture and Best Animated / International / Documentary
• Part 3 where I go over Best Director / Screenplay and Best Editing / Cinematography
• Part 4 where I go over Actor and Actress

A quick recap though on what we covered in previous entries that is relevant to this installment

• The PD/CD/MUAH category is overall worth 850 points – the second least behind EDIT/CIN at 800
  • However since these are 3 categories, the average category is worth only 283 points while each EDIT/CIN is worth 400 points, so I’d value this as the least valuable category.
  • Within those 850 points, nearly half (400) go to Production Design. Only 250 go to Costume Design, and a paltry 200 go to Makeup and Hair.
  • For me this suggests that unless you are getting the #1 or #2 Production Designer (which you should take just after the top EDIT/CIN players), it’s not worth reaching for any players here. 
• The SCORE/SONG/SOUND/VFX category is overall worth 1500 points
  • However since this is split between 4 categories, each has an average worth of 375 each, which in my eyes have them valued at just under EDIT/CIN and under ANI/INT/DOC.
  • Score is the most valuable with 550 points – I’d value the top Score players around where the top Production Designer goes. 
  • Song has about 400 points. Last year it actually had about 800 points but that was due to songs generally having 2-3x as many nominees per song (i.e. multiple songwriters), so the number of actual chances for song aren’t as high as it seems. This does let multiple people draft the top performing song each year, which also makes it harder to get an edge in this category.
  • Visual Effects is about 300 points – it was less last season but will ber slightly bumped this season.
  • Sound is only 250 points. Alongside Makeup and Costume Design, this should be one of the last categories you draft overall.
• In this series I’m looking at 3 different methodologies on how to value players
  • My method is to prioritize players that I think will win Oscar night first and foremost. This gives up some win percentage during the matchups leading into the playoffs, but assuming that the contenders at the Oscars will do well with the various awards, you hopefully coast through.
  • Nico (the winner of two separate leagues last year) is a bit less focused on films that will win at the Oscars and goes for players likely to get points at critics and industry awards. This lets you get a bye going into the playoffs assuming you are in a commanding lead throughout the season, but will require more active involvement on the waiver wire week to week.
  • John (the admin of RCR) has the official RCR pre-draft rankings based on a mix of his own gut based over years of running RCR as a format, Oscars pundits, categories not present at the Oscars, and goes for a more holistic approach. 

For this final iteration of this series, we will be looking at the technical categories we have left to cover, and then we’ll take all the overall rankings we’ve generated and do one overall mock draft combining the three perspectives mentioned above.

PD/CD/MUAH

As noted above, PD/CD/MUAH is a category with a steep drop off from the top of the category. Because Production Design is so much more valued in terms of how many awards are given out each season, you want to prioritize that above everything else – in my rankings I have three Production Designers before the first Costume Designer, and 9 Production Designers to 6 Costumes and only 5 Makeup (which all are 15/20 or worse).  

As we’ve done for the previous entries, here are the rankings that John, Nico, and I have done, as well as an overall ranking based on the average and standard deviation of our rankings (unranked players were given 21). I also have the category for each player, and color coded them, Orange for Production, Blue for Costume and Purple for Makeup and Hair

You can see that it worked out we have the same breakdown of 9 PD / 6 CD / 5 MUAH in the overall category, though Nico and John were able to get Costume and MUAH a bit higher. However we still have 5/10 PD in the top 10, vs only one 1 MUAH, though 2 of the PDs worked on the same film.

Looking at the representation of ranked players in these categories, you have those in the top 10 (green), those in the top 20 (Yellow) and those outside the top 20 but still ranked (Red). We obviously are more confident in the Production category than Makeup and Hair at this point when it comes to who we want to draft. 

Going through the individuals ranked, there are generally 6 players head and shoulders above the rest, with 4 of them in all of our top 6. I’ll also note here that at the Oscars, the Costumes Branch tends to nominate their favorites with maybe one new nominee each year, so it highly favors former nominees. 

• The clear head and shoulders lead is Sarah Greenwood, Production Designer for Barbie as the universal number one. Given all the stories about how they caused a worldwide pink paint shortage in designing the set, not to mention how the set of Barbieland is an integral part to selling the film, it’s no wonder she’s a heavy favorite to win this category.
• Number 2 and 3 had a tie in average ranking, though number 2 had less variance. Former Oscar winner Jaqueline Durran was my number 5, Nicos number 4, and John’s number 3 for her work as Costumes for Barbie. Again, Barbie being the fashion icon she is (not to mention Ken’s outfits), it’s no surprise she’s a favorite here.
  • This also tracks with what I had said previously that Barbie may miss on some ATL nominations, but would definitely get BP based off the strength of its technical nominations.
• Number 3 overall went to Holly Waddington, Poor Things Costume Designer with a rating as high as 2 for John and as low as 6 for Nico. Without having seen the film I’m not as familiar with the extent of costumes, but the period-ish nature of the film lends well to the chance that it gets a nom.
  • Notably, she has not been nominated before and the Costume category is a bit of an insiders club so she may have the additional hill to climb
• Number 4 and 5 also tied, with number 4 having a lower variance with ratings between top 2 for me down to 8 for Nico. James Price has the dual Production Designer role for Poor Things and for the yet to be seen Iron Claw releasing on Christmas. Again, not as much direct footage is out there, but the period and somewhat surreal nature of Poor Things based on the trailers could lend to a nomination here.
  • Notably he is joined on Poor Things production design by Shona Heath, who is down at number 8. My guess is that since he has the second production credit that is what brings him higher up in the rankings. 
• Fifth place had a range from 2 from Nico to 9 for John, Ruth Du Jong as Production Designer for Oppenhimer. Given that part of the plot of Oppenheimer was to build a town and build it fast, the fact that they actually did that for the production of the film (not to mention the other recreations of various historical places around the US), if Oppenheimer can get recognition for doing so, so can she. 
• The last of our clear top 6 is James Fisk, the Production Designer of Killers of the Flower Moon, ranked between 5 and 6 for all of us. Again, the historical nature is always a selling point for these films, and being attached to a big name is an easy way to get early recognition

The earliest you should take any of these players is Sarah Greenwood sometime in round 5 or 6, based on if you have your above the line players locked up and whether or not the top Score players have been taken. Otherwise, the rest of these 6 will probably go in round 7 or later. The remainder of our top 10 will fill out round 8, or even later. Aside from ranked 8 Shona Heath who we’ve mentioned we have the following:

• Jacqueline West at number 7, who had a top 10 rating from all 3 of us (as high as 7 for me) for her costume work on Killers of the Flower Moon. Her being a former nominee again helps her case
• The sole Makeup and Hair nominee is from Maestro at number 9 – John and Nico had it at 7 and 6 respectively while it was number 16 for me, due to my preference to not take a Makeup nomination due to how rare they are throughout the race. That said, it is probably the most notable / talked about Makeup and Hair work which is tied to a major actor (Bradley Cooper as Leonard Bernstein, especially the nose prosthetic) so it’s understandable if you wanted to go for the frontrunner.
• Rounding out the top 10 is Franchine Jamison Tanchuck for Costume work on The Color Purple (and also They Cloned Tyrone), with ratings ranging from 7 for John to 15 for Nico. They are hurt by being another first time Costume nominee, but given that the original movie and the Broadway musical both got a costume nomination for their respective awards shows (Oscars and Tonys), it isn’t a big leap to think this might do that too.

Since this is a relatively lower value category I won’t go into as much detail for the rest of the top 20 and honoralbe mentions but in order they are 

• 11 – Adam Stockhausen – dual threat for Production Design on Asteroid City and Indiana Jones Dial of Destiny – notably Nico had him as high as number 3, while John had him unranked
• 12 – Paul D. Austerberry – The Color Purple Production Designer
• 13 – Guardians of the Galaxy MUAH
• 14 – Poor Things MUAH
• 15 – Barbie MUAH
• 16 – Lindy Hemming – Costume Designer for Wonka, and also a former winner. Also unranked by Nico
• 17 – Nathan Crowley – Production Designer for Wonka. Unranked by John
• 18 – Priscilla MUAH – ranked only by John
• 19 – Kevin Thompson – Maestro Production Design – unranked by me
• 20 – was actually a tie between two people, Stacey Battat for Priscilla Costume Design and Mark Bridges for Maestro Costume Design. If I had to do a tie breaker I’d say Mark Bridges as a former winner is favored between these two. These two were unranked by two of us – John had Battat at 13 and Nico had Bridges at 13. 

Outside of these some other ranked players

• We all had Oppenheimer MUAH ranked, but between 18-20
• Paulo – I have some faith in Napoleon, ranking Arthur Max for Production and Janty Yates for Costume. Notably, Yates is a former winner for Gladiator. David Crossman is also a Costume Designer for Napoleon, though not a former nominee
• John had Tamara Deverell for Production Design for Priscilla at 19
• Nico had Ellen Mirojnick for Oppenheimer Costume Design at 19. 

And then some other players in each category I want to call out as to keep an eye on the waivers for

• Production Design
  • Ray Chan – Dungeons & Dragons
  • Chris Oddy – Zone of Interest
  • Fiona Crombie – Beau is Afraid 
  • Maria Djurkovic – Ferrari
• Costume Design
  • Olvier Garcia – Chevalier
  • Milena Canonero – Asteroid City
  • Amanda Monk – Dungeons and Dragons
• Makeup and Hair
  • Dungeons and Dragons
  • Nyad
  • Ferrari
  • Killers of the Flower Moon
  • Napoleon
  • Golda

Moving then to our last category

Score / Song / VFX / Sound

The rankings for these show how all wipe open the race is, and they also reflects how it’s really hard to know who to go for outside of the top 5 picks or so. It also shows how we definitely did not coordinate on these rankings ahead of time, adding not only credibility to these rankings but also illustrates the what makes film awards fantasy so much fun: the uncertainty.

Based on the values available for this category, you are really going to want to go for Score over anything else. In our top 20 we have 9 solo composers (technically 10 but the last two tied) and 3 song/score composers. There are 3 in this category that are solo song credits (though one is also an actress), 3 VFX players and only 2 sound players. Personally I would take only Song or Score through the top 15 or so, before looking at any VFX or Sound players. VFX and Sound players are more “draft and stash” for the matchups that heavily feature those categories.

The big takeaway here are what the top 5 players to draft are. In my pre-draft rankings, these could go as early as round 3 for the very top composers, or around middle of round 4 for John or as late as the end of round 5 for Nico. 

• Ludwig Goransson and Robbie Robertson seem to be the two leaders for Score, in that order. John and I had them at 1 and 2 while Nico had them at 3 and 4. Goransson is a known quantity, having won for the Black Panther score, and the Oppenheimer score is a standout part of the film. Meanwhile, Robertson has never been nominated, and if he were to do so for here, it would be a posthumous one as he passed away earlier this year after a long career working with Scorsese on 11 of his films. A nomination here would be a sort of honoring of his long career.
• While John and I had these two at number one, Nico had collaborators Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt in those spots (with the other two at 3 and 4), for their dual work on Barbie both scoring it and with song writing credits for multiple songs on the soundtrack, including Gosling standout “I’m Just Ken.” There is some logic here as they would potentially get double nominated for award shows that award both , and are win competitive for that song. However there is a lot of competition for good songs, so I don’t think they will sweep song awards as much and almost certainly won’t win as many score awards, which is why I have them lower
• The final in our top 5 would be Daniel Pemberton, who has two score credits to his name – Ferrari and Spider-Man Across the Spider-Verse, giving him two shots in the most valuable sub-category here. 

Rounding out the top 10 you have the following:

• The former winning sibling songwriting pair of Billie Eilish and Finneas who wrote the song “What Was I Made For” for the Barbie movie, which may be even more likely to win the category. 
• Oppenheimer getting players in the top 10 for both its VFX and Sound as the leads 
• The Creator as a strong contender in VFX

The rest of the top 20 have

• Kris Bowers, composer for 3 films – notably The Color Purple, as well as Chevalier and Origin
• Composing duo Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, who scored both David Fincher’s The Killer and animated film TMNT: Mutant Mayhem
• Probably the main Marvel VFX push this year for Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3 
• Halle Bailey who has the upside of brealthrough acting credits as well as providing an original song for The Color Purple
• Alexandre Desplat who is as usual a workhorse on multiple films, including Nyad, Asteroid City and Lee among other
• Veteran Alan Menken who did both scores and songs for The Little Mermaid movie 
• Ferrari as the other top 20 sound contender 
• Joe Hisashi for The Boy and the Heron’s score, which would be more like a lifetime achievement
• And tying for top 20 is Thomas Newman, who has the record for most Oscar nominations of a living person with no wins, and Chris Bear, one half of the scoring duo who did Past Lives (but he also has another film to his name which is why he came out ahead)

Other contenders you may want to consider – again, focus mostly on Score and maybe song, and only go for the other two if you are sure they will win Oscar night

• Score
  • David Metzger – did both song and score for the upcoming Disney film Wish
  • Mica Levi is a former nominee who scored Zone of Interest
  • John Williams for Indiana Jones
  • Michael Giacchino for Next Goal Wins
  • Hildur Guonadottir for A Haunting in Venice
  • Hans Zimmer for The Creator
  • Daniel Rosen as the other half of the Past Lives scoring duo
• Song
  • Lin Manuel Miranda – The Little Mermaid
  • Diane Warren – Perpetual favorite with four movies this year: My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 (co-writer with Rita Wilson), 80 for Brady, The Magician’s Elephant, and Flamin’ Hot with some speculation that a documentary about her life could also come out which she will undoubtedly write a song for
  • Lenny Kravitz – did the song for Rustin, and also an Acting Credit
  • Stephen Bray and Siedah Garret and Brenda Russell all also did songs for The Color Purple. Halle Bailey contributed a song for The Color Purple, but the details around this song are unclear.
  • Dua Lipa did a song for Barbie, and also has an acting credit
  • Jack Black did a song for the Super Mario Bros Movie, with an acting credit
  • Wes Anderson has a song for Asteroid City, in addition to directing and screenwriting credits
• VFX
  • Aquaman 2
  • Across the Spiderverse
  • Napoleon
  • Mission Impossible 7 
  • John Wick 4
  • Transformers
  • Dungeons and Dragons
• Sound – I’ll note here that Sound at the Oscars is tied to Editing, and Editing is tied to win, so any appropriate Best Picture winner contender could go here at least for a nomination
  • Killers of the Flower Moon
  • Poor Things
  • Napoleon
  • Across the Spider-Verse
  • The Bikeriders
  • Maestro
  • John Wick 4
  • The Color Purple

Final Mock Draft

Now that we have the final category done, here are the overall rankings for all categories 

Using these with the general rule of thumb of SCRN > PIC > DIR > ACTR/ACTRS > SCORE > ANI/INT/DOC > EDIT/CIN > PD > other tech categories, and generally going for the top 2-3 per category before moving to the next one, and trying to fill out your roster, here is the overall mock draft for the first 8 rounds, presented without too much comment. Obviously trying to figure out the players to fill out the flex and bench spots gets a bit trickier so that’s left up to the reader as an exercise.

With that, hopefully you are well equipped to tackle your draft this year! Feel free to message me on Discord if you have any feedback or any questions about drafting. 

Till next year

~Paulo