Draft Strategy 104 – Acting

by Paulo Bautista, Host of the Oscars Death Race Podcast

Introduction and Review

Welcome to part 3 of my series on draft advice for the 2023-2024 Red Carpet Rosters series!

In case you missed parts 1-3, check the links below

• Part 1 where I go over my overall methodology and provide some sample mock drafts
• Part 2 where I go over Best Picture and Best Animated / International / Documentary
• Part 3 where I go over Best Director / Screenplay and Best Editing / Cinematography

A quick recap though on what we covered in previous entries that is relevant to this installment

• Acting categories are worth about 1050 overall each for ACTR and ACTRS
  • There isn’t a real breakdown between Supporting and Lead acting roles, so I’m assuming they are roughly 50-50, with a slight bias for Lead to go 550 Lead and 500 Supporting
• There are also 500 points available for Debut / Breakthrough and Youth
  • These are shared with debut directors as well. However this will lead to a slight bump for any young or breakout actors. 
• In this series I’m looking at 3 different methodologies on how to value players
  • My method is to prioritize players that I think will win Oscar night first and foremost. This gives up some win percentage during the matchups leading into the playoffs, but assuming that the contenders at the Oscars will do well with the various awards, you hopefully coast through.
  • Nico (the winner of two separate leagues last year) is a bit less focused on films that will win at the Oscars and goes for players likely to get points at critics and industry awards. This lets you get a bye going into the playoffs assuming you are in a commanding lead throughout the season, but will require more active involvement on the waiver wire week to week.
  • John (the admin of RCR) has the official RCR pre-draft rankings based on a mix of his own gut based over years of running RCR as a format, Oscars pundits, categories not present at the Oscars, and goes for a more holistic approach. 

In this installment, as you can guess, we are talking about the ACTR and ACTRS slots and who you should be prioritizing in your drafts. 

ACTORS

As we’ve done for the previous entries, here are the rankings that John, Nico, and I have done, as well as an overall ranking based on the average and standard deviation of our rankings (unranked players were given 21). I also color coded them within the Overall column – Orange for a lead, Green for supporting, and Purple for someone who is both lead and supporting in different films. 

Before we break down the individuals, let’s compare the Lead and Supporting categories based on how they were ranked. I included the two players with both Lead and Supporting credits in both lists in their relative places.

For Lead Actor, the top 5 basically track with what Gold Derby has. Bradley Cooper is higher ranked here due to his Directing and Screenwriting Credits, and I suspect Colman Domingo is higher rated due to being in two competitive films. Jeffrey Wright, Joaquin Phoenix, and Andrew Scott are the 6-8 slot on Gold Derby, so this tracks. Matt Damon is ranked a bit lower but does have the dual credit as well. Being on the fringe for two movies makes him as valuable as someone who is “last in” for one movie.

For supporting actor, the race looks a lot more up in the air – the top 6 are all in Gold Derby’s top 6 (with Domingo at 6 – higher here again due to his dual credit). However there are many more actors we had in consideration, meaning the potential for a dark horse is still alive here more so than in Lead. 

Moving back to the ratings that the three of us came up with for each individual, notably all of us had 7 of the same top 8, with one extra pick – mine being Paul Giamatti at 8, Nico being Glenn Howerton at 7, and John being Mark Ruffalo at 5.

• Bradley Cooper as Lead for Maestro came in at number one across the board – not a huge surprise as he’s the only Director/Screenplay triple threat and was already a high pick for that category, so it makes sense he’s the first overall for all of us among actors. He will be gone by the first 3 picks of the draft overall so plan accordingly.
• Second overall goes to Robert Downey Jr for his Supporting role in Oppenheimer. Now two of us actually had him at 4th, but John brought him up to 2nd overall. He is one of the front runners for Supporting Actor so it makes sense he goes early.
  • My logic for my picks were to have (after Cooper) the two frontrunners for Lead ahead of the two front runners for Supporting, with a slight bias for Oppenheimer since more people have seen it at this point. 
• Third overall goes to Cillian Murphy who is the front runner in lead for headlining Oppenheimer. Again no surprise here because RDJ and Murphy had the identical rank, with Murphy just having a tad more variance in our scores (2 for me, 5 for Nico and 3 for John)
• Fourth goes to Colman Domingo, who I had lower down at 6 (outside the top 2 of each category plus Cooper), while Nico had him as high as 3 and John at 4. The logic here is that he is a likely pick for his role as Lead in Rustin, a film that otherwise likely won’t get a nomination. However since he also has a supporting role in The Color Purple, the two roles could synergize and push him to one or even both for double point potential. Notably he also won a Performer award from TIFF which could raise his profile.
• FIfth goes to Ryan Gosling, which I had down at 7 after Domingo, John had at 6, and Nico as high as 2nd overall. I think Nico thinks Gosling’s appeal in his supporting role in Barbie being a bit more of a populist pick will be successful all season long which I can understand.
• Sixth overall goes to Robert De Niro – comparable to RDJ as the supporting lead in one of the bigger awards players this year, but for Killers of the Flower Moon. We all had him in the 5-7 range. 
• The last of our consensus top 7 was Leonardo DiCarpio, which I personally find way too low since I had him as high as 3, but the other two had him at 8 each. Like RDJ to De Niro, I see Leo as the counterpart to Cillian Murphy, and see their race as close to a toss up between the two. 

Looking at our mock drafts, we all had our top 5 actors taken by the second round with between 2-3 in the first round alone. John and Nico had their top 7 go by the middle of round 3, while mine went by the middle of round 4. Moving then to our next slate of actors

• Eighth goes to Mark Ruffalo who seems to be the more buzzy Supporting actor out of Poor Things. His ratings ranged from my 9 to Nico’s 10 to John’s optimistic 5. Notably if you include Colman Domingo as a Supporting nominee, this would be the 5th Supporting nominee in this list mentioned.
• Ninth goes to Paul GIamatti who is the lead of The Holdovers. I personally think a Best Picture nomination for Holdovers hinges on Giamatti getting a nomination here, which is why I had him in my top 8 – Nico had him at 9 and John at 10, so in the similar range all around. As with Ruffalo, if you include Domingo as a Lead, Giamatti is the 5th highest lead nomination.
• Tenth overall goes to Jeffrey Wright, who is the lead for American Fiction. Nico and I were a bit more pessimistic here – having him at 12 and 14 respectively, while John put him at 9 overall. Wright being a respected actor in the industry and this being his big leading role that could get awards buzz works in his favor, even if I have American Fiction getting only one ATL nom in Screenwriting. Jeffrey Wright may also score some bonus points for his roles in Asteroid City and Rustin.
• At Eleven overall, Willem Dafoe comes in for the other supporting nomination for Poor Things. He could potentially miss if people coalesce around Ruffalo over him, but if you exclude Domingo as a supporting nominee, he would be the 5th supporting nominee in the list. I was highest on him at 10 while Nico and John had him around 15/16.

Beyond this point are players who aren’t favored to get an Oscar nom but could pick up some points here or there or may sneak in last minute if their campaign goes well. 

• 12 – Joaquin Phoenix – Lead Napoleon / Beau is Afraid – Paulo 11 / Nico 17 / John 15
  • I’m bullish on Phoenix because I think Napoleon could sneak in, with him as a lone ATL nomination alongside multiple BTL noms. Having a second film in Beau is Afraid doesn’t hurt either
• 13 – Andrew Scott – Lead All of Us Strangers – Paulo 13 / Nico 18 / John 17
  • I also am bullish on Scott since if either of Zone of Interest or Anatomy of a Fall miss best Picture, I see All of Us Strangers as the most likely to get the last spot in the final 10, off of Scott’s acting nomination alongside a screenwriting nom.
• 14 – Dominic Sessa – Supporting The Holdovers – Paulo 14 / Nico 13 / John NA
  • Notably this one had the same average rank as Scott, but with a bit more variance. I don’t think Sessa gets a nomination but he is a relative breakout in the film which would help him get some points throughout the season. 
• 15 – John Magaro – Supporting Past Lives – Paulo 20 / Nico 11 / John 18
  • I still think Past Lives is generally over-predicted due to being a first mover in the race coming out early on, but if there is a second ATL nomination for it, I think it would be for Magaro, if only because both Lead Actor and Actress are very crowded. 
• 16 – Glenn Howerton – Supporting BlackBerry – Paulo Unranked / Nico 7 / John Unranked
  • NIco really believes in Howerton, saying he was the highlight of the film and could get a lot of critics love over the course of the season. He actually tied with Magaro, but had the biggest variance of anyone ranked at all.
• 17 – Paul Mescal – Supporting All of Us Strangers – Paulo 16 / Nico 16 / John Unranked
  • After getting a deserved nomination in lead last year, Paul Mescal will be on people’s minds, and if All of Us Strangers overperforms, I think he will be part of that. Nico has him higher than Scott if only because Lead actor is more crowded
• 18 – Jesse Plemons – Supporting Killers of the Flower Moon – Paulo Unranked / Nico Unranked / John 11
  • John is bullish on Plemons as a “draft and stash” because he seems poised to be a potential Oscar nominee but won’t get a lot of points elsewhere.
• 19 – Matt Damon – Lead Air / Supporting Oppenheimer – Paulo Unranked / Nico 20 / John 13 
• 20 – Teo Yoo – Lead Past Lives – Paulo Unranked / Nico 12 / John Unranked

Some other potential players who could get some love 

• Barry Keoghan was ranked by both myself and Nico at 19 as a dark horse nom for leading Saltburn after his performance in Banshees last year.
• Charles Melton is also one that two of us – myself at 17 and John at 20 – had ranked. I’ve mentioned before how I think May December for a while was Netflix’s main push before Maestro, and Melton in supporting actor could be part of that – or even if it ends up being one of the ATL nominations that doesn’t get a BP nom. 
• Paulo – I think Jacob Elordi (my 15) could get some love primarily as a breakthrough nominee for both his supporting roles in Priscilla and in Saltburn. I also had Kingsley Ben-Adir at 18 for his upcoming lead role in the Bob Marley movie as a late breaking nominee.
  • I would also mention here Peter Sohn as a DIR/SCRN/ACTR after he did voice acting in Elemental, Taika Waititi as a DIR/SCRN/ACTR for Next Goal Wins, and Ben Affleck as an ACTR/DIR in Air
• Nico – all of his solo picks were already discussed
• John – His solo picks were
  • 12 – Lenny Kravitz as a dual song / acting nominee – his acting nomination probably doesn’t get noms but he did write the song for Rustin 
  • 14 – Sterling K. Brown – supporting for American Fiction, which John is high on
  • 19 – Nicolas Cage – multiple movies but most likely lead for Dream Scenario, which John is also high on

Actresses

Moving on to the ladies, let’s do the same ranking exercise

And then the breakdown of the Lead / Supporting actresses. For this one, there were more dual Lead / Supporting actresses, but I only counted them in the one they are more likely to get a nomination for (with the exception of Sandra Huller who I see as the only true double threat)

If you look at Gold Derby, for Lead Actress the top 4 are the same, with the next 3 (Robbie, Bening and Barrino) all trading places in the top 7. For Supporting Actress, excluding double threat Huller, The next 3 match Supporting.  Henson is relatively higher on Gold Derby at 4, while only 7th here. 

Looking at individual actresses, four of the top 6 were shared between all three of us. Meanwhile, John and I have Sandra Huller and Emily Blunt in our top 6, while Nico has Margot Robbie and Danielle Brooks. 

• After Poor Things debuted and moved to be a top 3 picture, it’s no surprise that former winner Emma Stone is back taking our first overall actress slot. If not for our number 2 nominee, she would be the clear favorite to win. No one had her below top 4. 
• Lily Gladstone made moves by officially announcing she would be lead and not supporting, making the lead actress more competitive while the supporting actress is now a bit more open. She was no lower than top 5 among us, with Nico having her at the top.
• Da’Vine Joy Randolph was the unexpected favorite coming out of The Holdovers, even more so than Paul Giamatti. In fact, she actually tied Lily Gladstone in both overall ranking and variance in ranking, so for all intents and purposes she’s a 2b to Gladstone’s 2a. Which is appropriate since she’s probably the biggest benefactor to Gladstone moving out. 
• Despite Maestro being predominantly a Bradley Cooper affair, don’t underestimate Carey Mulligan who actually has top billing. She also has a supporting nom potential in Saltburn which may be more a critics thing. 

If you’re looking at these top 4 actresses, usually about 2 will go in the first round (usually after the first 3 directors and first 3 pictures, alongside the top 2 actors, and the other two will go by the middle of round two. In fact, as many as 6 will be gone by the time round 3 starts. 

• Fifth place goes to Emily Blunt who technically has a lead role for Pain Hustlers, but is more likely to get in for Supporting in Oppenheimer. She’s a bit more of a known quantity than other films that have yet to air, hence her relatively high performance, plus having a definite “Oscar worthy” scene in the movie is to her favor. She ranged from 3 to 8 in our rankings.
• Sixth Place is my first overall, but Nico’s 11th – Sandra Huller. She’s a true dual threat in my opinion, as lead of Anatomy of a Fall and supporting in Zone of Interest, the two big European films. She is a bit more favored to get a nom in Anatomy though, which hurts her chances somewhat since it missed International feature. If I were to redo my rankings I may consider moving her to 3rd since she may not win in the end, but still should do well throughout the season. 
• Seventh goes to Margot Robbie, a somewhat divisive predictions since many thing who she’s a lock for Lead Actress while others have her on the outside. I have her at 8th overall, Nico has her at 4th. Obviously as the lead of the biggest movie of the year she has an advantage, though I think with other major films yet to truly go wide she may slip further down the rankings. She also does have a supporting role in Asteroid City, though I wouldn’t expect too much from that. Notably if you consider Huller as lead, this is the 5th Lead Actress so far. 
• Eighth goes to Danielle Brooks who is one of two potentially supporting actress nominations from The Color Purple. Because anything from The Color Purple is a wildcard – John and I had her outside top 10 while NIco had her at 6
• Ninth is Julianne Moore for supporting in May December. Funnily enough despite being my 14th overall pick, she is my 5th highest pure Supporting Actress nominee, which I think shows how open that category is. Nico and John had her a bit higher. Again, if May December ends up being a thing, so should Moore.
• Rounding out the top 10 is Annette Bening who is 13th from me, 12th from Nico and 10th from John for her lead role in Nyad. Personally, as reception of Nyad has gone down, I would probably rank her lower today but you never know with lead actresses being prone to having more random nominations outside of Best Picture contenders. 

Moving to outside the top 10

• 11a – Fantasia Barrino – Lead The Color Purple – Paulo 9 / Nico 15 / John 13
  • It’s hard to really rank The Color Purple players too highly just because it comes out relatively late in the season. That said if this remake does get actress noms she should be in there.
• 12 – Emerald Fennell – Supporting Barbie / Dir/Scrn Saltburn–  Paulo 7 / Nico unranked / John 9
  • The same score as Barrino, though with more variance. I think John and I have her this high for the same reason – she is more here for being a double threat for directing and writing Saltburn, and less for her supporting role in Barbie. This would probably be a high risk, high reward strategy of betting big on Saltburn to get you Screenwriting nominations and giving up the Actress slot more or less. Even if you don’t go for that though, as a Flex player you could do worse. 
• 13 – Cailee Spaeny – Lead Priscilla- Paulo 12 / Nico 9 / John Unranked
  • While Emma Stone probably would have won the Volpi Actress nomination if not for Poor Things winning the Golden Lion and making her ineligible, Spaeny getting it instead can’t hurt. After all, most English speaking winners since 2016 have gone on to a Best Actress nomination at the Oscars. Plus she could get some breakthrough points as well. 
• 14 – Penelope Cruz – Supporting Ferrari – Paulo 17 / Nico 13 / John 15
  • Speaking of Volpi cup winners getting an Actress nomination, Penelope Cruz did just that with Parallel Mothers, despite the film not even getting an international submission from Spain. All I’m saying is that there needs to be some number of films ATL that aren’t Best Picture that get noms, and her supporting role in Ferrari fits the bill. Also, if you exclude Huller and Fennell as being technically Supporting Actresses, Cruz would be the 5th for the category, which again is kind of insane that we’re this far down before hitting that point. 
• 15 – Taraji P. Henson – Supporting The Color Purple – Paulo 10 / Nico 18 / John 18
  • Not gonna lie, I mostly went with the fact that Gold Derby has her at 5 for supporting. The same notes about The Color Purple being hard to rate apply here. It seems Brooks is the more likely nominee, though two from the same film isn’t out of the question (see Everything Everywhere All At Once)
• 16 – Greta Lee – Lead Past Lives – Paulo 20 / Nico 7 / John 20
  • Again, I think Past Lives is mostly over-predicted. I mean Lee is the 9th most likely lead nominee. However I suspect Nico is going for Critics and indepdent awards more so than for Oscars with Lee which I can understand. Every single season, there are so-called “critics darlings” who get a whole bunch of points in the regular season only to get snubbed on Oscar nomination day.
• 17 – Natalie Portman – Lead May December – Paulo 15 / Nico 14 / John 19
  • See the note on Julianne Moore – if May December is a thing, Portman can be a thing

Below this point are nominees who only had 1 or 2 people ranking them.

• 18 – Halle Bailey – John only at 11 – She has Lead and Supporting in two separate films plus a potential Song Credit for The Color Purple (which I didn’t know about when I did my rankings), and high potential for some bonus breakthrough points.
• 19 – Rosamund Pike – John only at 13 – Supporting Saltburn
• 20a – Viola Davis – Me and Nico only (19/17) – Supporting Air – after missing for The Woman King I could see her getting a makeup nom here. John went against his own gut for not ranking her in his top 20, for what it’s worth
• 20b – America Ferrera – Nico and John only (19/17) – Supporting Barbie
• Jodie Foster – Me and Nico (16/20) – Supporting Nyad 
• Aunjanue Ellis Taylor – John only at 16 – Supporting two films (The Color Purple and Origin, the latter of which John is high on)
• Abby Ryder Fortson – Nico only at 16 – Supporting Are You There God It’s Me Margaret – mostly for breakout / youth potential
• Teyana Taylor – Me only at 18 – Lead A Thousand and One – mostly for breakout potential for the Sundance favorite

Outside of these I’d also mention 

• Dua Lipa is both a supporting Actress and Song nominee for Barbie
• Florence Pugh is supporting for Oppenheimer, but also a song credit on A Good Person
• Ayo Ebediri could get breakout points for Theater Camp / Bottoms and voice acting in TMNT: Mutant Mayhem (plus being in The Bear and Abbott Elementary doesn’t hurt)
• Jodie Comer could also be a surprise hit for leading The Bikeriders, since she’s having a moment after her Tony Award

Summary

Overall I think of these four categories

• Lead Actor is the most locked down with a pretty set 5 with one of three competing to hopefully upset
• Supporting Actor is more open with probably 4 set and then maybe five possible contenders for that last spot.
• Lead Actress is super cutthroat – Outside the top 4, there are maybe 6 competitors for the last spot.
• Supporting Actress is wide open – There are 3 favorites, but then 7 viable contenders. 

Overall I would try to lock down one of those top 1-2 in each category before moving on to the technicals, but after the top 3 Pics and directors go. 

In any case, that’s long enough for this entry. We’ll follow up with our last entry next time looking at the last two remaining technical categories, as well as an overall mock draft based on the combined overall rankings.

Till next time

~Paulo