After watching all the Oscar nominated short films and watching all the other 39 feature length Oscar nominated films, I’m growing more confident with my betting advice. The short films particularly usually offers GREAT value from year to year. When Colette won Best Documentary Short two years ago, it was paying 9 to 1 odds. Let’s get into it.
Bovada
Best Actor – Brendan Fraser +120
Austin Butler won the BAFTA, a big surprise win over Colin Farrell. That now makes him the betting favorite at -130. However Butler’s win says more about Colin Farrell dropping out of the three-horse race instead of Brendan Fraser. Fraser’s implied probability is 45%, which is still low enough for me to be comfortable throwing a betting unit his way. I think Fraser will win the SAG, and if he does, this line will move back into negative territory. That’s why grabbing it now is a good idea.
Best Actress – Michelle Yeoh +190
Cate Blanchett is becoming more of a favorite, especially (like Butler) after her BAFTA win. Blanchett’s line is -250, and that’s WAY too high of the implied probability of 71%. Meanwhile, Michelle Yeoh is going to siphon votes from everyone who voted for Danielle Deadwyler and Viola Davis, two HUGE snubs. The Academy had a golden opportunity to nominated three women of color in an acting category. I hope they save face by now awarding the only woman of color nominee.
Best Adapted Screenplay – None
Sarah Polley is the favorite at -200, and she’s likely going to win. I don’t see any other betting line worth the price, and I don’t like Sarah Polley’s price either. The next favorite is All Quiet on the Western Front at +150, but even that isn’t worth the risk. There’s also not a clear way to hedge this bet either. Stay away from this one, unless you’re more confident than I am with either Polley or AQOTWF writers Berger, Paterson, and Stokell.
Best Animated Feature – The Field
I’ve written before taking the field with Best Animated Feature. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio is the HEAVY favorite at a whopping -2500, which is an implied probability of 96%. You’re really telling me that the film that doesn’t have the highest critics score nor the highest audience score has a 96% chance of winning? Yes, I conceded that GDT’s Pinocchio is the favorite, and I’m picking it in any Oscar pool I do, but throwing some units to Marcel at +1200, Puss in Boots at +1100, and Turning Red at +1600 is worth the value. Right now, if you want to not limit the betting potential, take Marcel at +1200.
Best Animated Short Film – An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake And I Think I Believe It +800
Yes, the BAFTA went to The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse. It’s also the favorite at -500. It has star power behind it. It’s based on a universally beloved book. It checks all the boxes, except for one box…how much does it really appeal to the average Oscar voter? On the other hand, Ostrich is funny and has a unique premise. Also, the feature nominees skew more adult, seemingly indicating a desire for more adult-centric animation. We also have two stop-motion feature nominees, one of which will probably win. Why not have two stop-motion winners, one for feature and one for short? I fully admit, if this betting line was sitting at +500 or below, I wouldn’t bother. However +800 (implied probability 11%) is very tempting. Bovada has a very strict limit on this, so might as well do it since it won’t cost you much of anything.
Best Cinematography – Mandy Walker +500
Can we please have a woman win this category? Mandy Walker is only the THIRD female nominee in this category. The heavy favorite is James Friend, and his work for All Quiet on the Western Front was recognized at BAFTA’s. If he wins, it surely will be well deserved. I’m also picking him in my Oscar pool. However, history can be made with a Mandy Walker win, and +500 is the right price for it. I won’t touch this for anything less, though. I’m also not putting much on it. It’s more of a bragging rights issue if it hits.
Best Costume Design – Jenny Beavan +2000
I’m actually going to be predicting this in my Oscar pool. Sure, the race appears to be between Ruth E. Carter’s Black Panther: Wakanda Forever and Catherine Martin’s Elvis, but Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris is the only nominee to be fashion-centric. Jenny Beavan won last year with a fashion-centric film, Cruella. Can she win twice in a row? At +2000, I think she can.
Best Director – None
Daniels are at -1200. That’s way too steep of a price. The Academy’s proclivity of splitting Director and Picture will probably be broken here. If Edward Berger had been nominated, I might be tempted there, but he isn’t. Steven Spielberg is the next favorite at +600, but I’m gonna pull that trigger if it goes close to +800. I don’t like any of these betting lines.
Best Documentary – Navalny -110
If you bet on sports a lot, you recognize the -110 betting line as the default for beating the spread. It really is the benchmark on deciding to take it or bet the other team. For this, Navalny seems to be poised to win. It features anti-Putin sentiment, and that’s enough for it to win. If it moves past -110, I’m not touching it. Good thing I’m grabbing it now.
Best Documentary Short – None
It REALLY pains me to not bet on all the shorts categories, but The Elephant Whisperers is likely to win and the oddsmakers agree with me at -200. If you really want to put money behind it, that’s fine, but I generally don’t like to bet on ANY favorite at -200 or further.
Best Editing – Eddie Hamilton +120
Winning editors usually have a best sound nominee backing it up. You have to go back all the way to when The Departed won best editing without a corresponding sound nomination. This weakens Paul Rogers’s claim as favorite in this category (at -180). Sure, the streak can easily be broken, but the editing in Top Gun: Maverick is impressive, so I’ll take any betting line with a plus sign in front of it.
Best International Feature Film – None
All Quiet on the Western Front is going to win, and I’m not about to touch a betting line of -3000. That’s simply not worth it. I’d have to put $300 down just to win back $10. Not even worth my time.
Best Live Action Short – An Irish Goodbye +110
It’s rare for the betting favorite to have a betting line over +100. Such is the case here, though. The next favorite has Disney behind it, Le Pupille at +140. It’s going to be one of those two, but An Irish Goodbye has the edge because it has what the Academy tends to gravitate towards: light humor with heart. It’s not too serious. It’s not inundated with comedy (although I like those the best anyway.) And Le Pupille lacks the payoff that makes child-centric shorts successful, like Sing a few years ago.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling – The Whale -110
Also a rarity, the second betting favorite also has a negative betting line. The favorite is Elvis at -125, but although Elvis got two MUAH guild awards, The Whale got the one that most closely correlates with a win, Best Special Effects Makeup. If this gets any more than -110, I’m staying away.
Best Picture – None, maybe Tár
Everything Everywhere All at Once has now become a heavy favorite, so kudos to you if you caught it before the line moved to -300, which it is currently. I’m staying away from that now. Tár, however, is paying +3300. That’s huge value. It has an editing nom. It overperformed with Oscar nominations. I will be surprised as you are if Tár wins, but at +3300, why not?
Best Production Design – None
As divisive Babylon is, it will win Production Design, and -260 is too steep a price. I might be tempted by Catherine Martin’s Elvis at +250. I’ll be tempted more if that line moves closer to +500. I can’t at +250.
Best Sound – None
See Best Production Design for similar logic, just replace the films.
Best Supporting Actor – None
It’s Ke Huy Quan all the way, and his betting line is -1250. No way I’m touching it and not even Brendan Gleeson’s +800 can tempt me.
Best Supporting Actress – Jamie Lee Curtis +1800
Sure, Stephanie Hsu will siphon votes away from Jamie Lee Curtis. Sure Angela Bassett is the clear favorite. Sure Kerry Condon won the BAFTA. There are a lot of things against Curtis right now, but call it a gut intuition. Of all the nominees, she’s the biggest scene stealer. That is worth more than the implied probability of 5%. I might even be tempted to choose her in my Oscar pool.
BetUS
I’m not going to hash out a lot of the same logic here, so apply the previous Bovada section as my advice at this sportsbook, which has similar betting lines. Below are just the ones that are different enough worth inclusion here, or for categories that weren’t on Bovada.
Best Original Score – None
Justin Hurwitz is the clear favorite, and I don’t think the next favorite, Volker Bertelmann at +150, is worth it either.
Best Original Screenplay – None
It’s either gonna be Martin McDonagh with The Banshees of Inisherin or Daniels with Everything Everywhere All at Once. Neither line is appealing to me.
Best Original Song – “Lift Me Up” +250
Naatu Naatu is the favorite at -350. It should win, but original song always has surprises. I’m tempted by “Hold My Hand” at +600, too. Remember when there was a stirring live performance of “This Is Me” from The Greatest Showman, and when “Remember Me” from Coco was announced as a winner, the audience was noticeably disappointed? If Naatu Naatu has a live performance, I feel like there will be a repeat when something else ends up getting the win.
Best Documentary Short – The Elephant Whisperers -110
I’m thrilled to bet on a doc short, and -110 is the right price to do it. Pounce on it.
MyBookie
There weren’t any lines that were different enough than the previous sportsbooks, so the Bovada section applies here too.
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