Oscar Betting Picks 1/28/2023

This post is highlighting the race for Best Animated Feature. No one will argue that Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio is the frontrunner, but I will argue that its status as frontrunner is more fragile than many are wanting to admit. Right now, Bovada has a betting line of -1200, which is an implied probability of 92%. That’s way too high, especially because Pixar, A24, Dreamworks, and another Netflix film are in contention. If any shocker is going to happen on Oscar night, Animated Feature seems ripe for an upset. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio has gotten wins at important precursors such as Critics Choice and Golden Globes, but may I remind you that the overlap in voters for the Academy is nil. An oft overlooked metric is audience scores, such as those found on Rotten Tomatoes and iMDB. Sure, the voters there are not overlapping with the Academy, but the Academy is a large voting body, just like the general populace who votes on RT and iMDB. Let’s take a look at four metrics: Metacritics, Rotten Tomatoes Critic score, Rotten Tomatoes Audience score, and iMDB rating.

Notice how close the averages are to one another. Also notice that Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio doesn’t have the highest score in any of the metrics. Yes, it’s the favorite to win, but I’m taking the field. In fact, I can see any of these winning over GDT’s Pinocchio, except for maybe The Sea Beast. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish does have a disadvantage being a sequel, but the Audience score from Rotten Tomatoes is hard to ignore. With all of this, I’m convinced that the field has a way better than 8% chance of hitting, and the only way I can bet the field is to place bets on all the other nominees, except for The Sea Beast.

Right now, Bovada is giving betting lines to Marcel the Shell with Shoes On at +800 and +1200 to both Puss in Boots: The Last Wish and Turning Red. If I put 1 unit on each of those, that will still net me at least 2.7 to 1 payout, which equates to an implied probability of 27%, much higher than the 8% for the field to win.

I would put 1 unit each on Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Turning Red, and Puss in Boots: The Last Wish. If you want a little more risk, put additional units on Marcel the Shell with Shoes On.