The Oscar nominations are out! Which means this is a golden opportunity to place some bets on major value. Let’s take a look. Bovada is my only sportsbook that has updated betting lines right now.
Brendan Fraser -150
Sure, The Whale didn’t get a Best Picture nomination nor did it get an Adapted Screenplay nomination, but last I checked, those aren’t Best Actor indicators, or if they are, the correlation is weak. (Feel free to prove me wrong with data.) Hong Chau got a nomination, though, so not all is lost. Brendan Fraser is still the frontrunner here, and this line will move drastically if he wins at the SAG Awards. This might be the best value, and I’m not putting any money on Brendan Fraser if the line moves into more negative territory. -150 is my limit.
I would bet 1 unit.
Michelle Yeoh +110
Everything Everywhere All at Once got 11 nominations. Cate Blanchett gave a stinker of an acceptance speech at the Critics Choice Awards. The acting branch is behind this film, indicated by the Academy doling out three acting nominations: Yeoh, Ke Huy Quan, and Stephanie Hsu. Cate Blanchett is the favorite at -165, but I think Michelle Yeoh takes it here. Although not founded in anything, a Michelle Yeoh win would help the Academy save a little face after not nominating another POC for Best Actress. Plus, an implied probability of 48% is low enough to pull the trigger here.
I would bet 2 units.
Daniels -140
You don’t get 11 nominations without strong directing. Daniels have been mainstays for the Best Director award, and they are favored to win it. Again, this line is going to move into more negative territory. Grab it now before it’s too late.
I would bet 1 unit.
TÁR +3300
The so-called trifecta indicator of favorites to win Best Picture is a Best Picture nom, a Best Director nom, and a Best Editing nom. Three films have that, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Banshees of Inisherin, and (notably not The Fabelmans) TÁR. Yes, that means more for Everything Everywhere All at Once as it vies for Best Picture over Banshees of Fabelmans, but TÁR also got a surprise nomination for Cinematography, meaning the love for it may run deeper than we realize. Getting nominations in Actress and Writing doesn’t hurt either. I’m not picking this in my office pool, and last year’s CODA win seemingly dispels the myth that you need directing and editing, but an implied probability of only 3% with these types of nominations is impossible to ignore.
I would bet 1 unit.
Everything Everywhere All at Once -165
This is the frontrunner, folks. To pay for my TÁR bet, I would put 2 units on this one. That way you’re rooting for either to win since you’ll end up the black no matter what.
That’s all for now. Check back here for updates, especially in other categories where the serious value can be had.
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