Welcome to the second edition of Oscar Betting Picks! For the first post, click here. Bovada and MyBookie.ag, as of right now, don’t have Academy Awards lines, but BetUS does. Let’s dig into them.
John’s Betting Picks
There seems to be huge value in the Best Director betting lines right now. Steven Spielberg is the favorite at a staggering -350, which is an implied probability of 78%. I’m not touching that at all. This implies the field has a 22% chance, and with the director field this year, I have to bet. The Daniels, though, are paying +700, with an implied probability of only 12.5%. They’ve done really well with all the regional critics organizations, but the so-called big three (New York, Los Angeles, and National Society of Film Critics) named S.S. Rajamouli, Todd Field, and Charlotte Wells as best director, respectively. Critics don’t vote on the Oscars, but enough people familiar with the film industry thought it was appropriate to award the Daniels Best Director, and 12.5% is huge value. I’m putting two units on Daniels at +700.
Todd Field is sitting at +850, with an implied probability of 10.5%. Because TÁR did get the trifecta, Todd Field is in good position to at least snag a nomination. That’s the same line as Sarah Polley, and I think Todd Field has a better chance at an Oscar win that she does, especially given the lack of Women Talking representation at the BAFTA longlists. Because of that, I’m putting half a unit on Todd Field.
Speaking of the trifecta, TÁR is currently paying +850 for Best Picture. That’s too hard to ignore, so I’m putting one unit on it to win Best Picture.
Everything Everywhere All at Once is paying +150 for Best Picture. Right now, I consider this to be the favorite. It’s absolutely crushing everywhere else, and it seems to have a lot of love from the acting branch of the Academy. I wouldn’t be surprised if this turns into the favorite by the time Oscar night rolls around, so getting it while it’s still an underdog is a no brainer. I’m putting 3 units on it.
In Best Supporting Actress, I’m taking Kerry Condon at +150 and Jamie Lee Curtis at +450. No one has a negative line for Best Supporting Actress. Kerry Condon is the most decorated Supporting Actress so far, and Martin McDonagh has success in getting supporting roles an Oscar nomination. Jessie Buckley is also at +150, and Kerry Condon has a better chance than she does, so I’m taking Condon.
Jamie Lee Curtis feels due for an Oscar nomination, doesn’t she? Yes Stephanie Hsu should be at least nominated, but Jamie Lee Curtis’s performance seems to be more Academy friendly.
BetUS, at least for me, has betting limits of $25, so I’ve updated the summary below to reflect that, assuming one unit being $20.
In summary:
- 1.25 units on Daniels at +700 for Best Director
- 0.5 units on Todd Field at +850 for Best Director
- 1.25 units on TÁR at +850 for Best Picture
- 1.25 units on Everything Everywhere All at Once at +150 for Best Picture
- 1.25 units on Kerry Condon at +150 for Best Supporting Actress
- 1.25 units on Jamie Lee Curtis at +450 for Best Supporting Actress
Good luck!
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