Oscar Shortlist Predictions

UPDATE 12/21/2022 – The Shortlists came out! How did I do? Take a look below:

I seldom do predictions, but I couldn’t help myself. I’m not doing predictions for short films, but here are my predictions for the seven categories of Documentary Feature, International Feature Film, Makeup and Hairstyling, Music (Original Score), Music (Original Song), Sound, and Visual Effects.

Documentary Feature

• Fire of Love – IN
• All the Beauty and the Bloodshed- IN
• All That Breathes – IN
• Good Night Oppy – OUT
• Moonage Daydream – IN
• Nothing Compares – OUT
• The Territory – IN
• Descendant – IN
• Louis Armstong’s Black & Blues – OUT
• Wildcat – OUT
• Navalny – IN
• Selena Gomez: My Mind & Me – OUT
• Nascondino (Hide and Seek) – OUT
• Bad Axe – IN
• The Automat – OUT

I got 8/15 (OUCH). Below are my misses:

• Children of the Mist
• Hallelujah: Leonard Cohen, a Journey, a Song
• Hidden Letters
• A House Made of Splinters
• The Janes
• Last Flight Home
• Retrograde

International Feature

• RRR (just kidding, this isn’t elgibile since India submitted Last Film Show)
• Decision to Leave – IN
• Close – IN
• EO – IN
• All Quiet on the Western Front – IN
• Argentina, 1985 – IN
• Corsage – IN
• Saint Omer – IN
• Holy Spider – IN
• The Quiet Girl – IN
• Winners – OUT
• Bardo – IN
• Alcarràs – OUT
• Cairo Conspiracy – IN
• A Cup of Coffee and New Shoes On – OUT
• Return to Seoul – IN

12/15, not too shabby. Below are my misses:

• Last Film Show
• The Blue Caftan
• Joyland

Makeup and Hairstyling

• The Whale – IN
• The Batman – IN
• Everything Everywhere All at Once – OUT
• All Quiet on the Western Front – IN
• Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – IN
• Babylon – IN
• Amsterdam – IN
• The Woman King – OUT
• X – OUT
• Blonde – IN

7/10, not too shabby I guess. Below are my misses:

• Crimes of the Future
• Elvis
• Emancipation

Music (Original Score)

• Michael Giacchino, The Batman – OUT
• Alexandre Desplat, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio – IN
• Ludwig Göransson, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – IN
• Hildur Guðnadóttir, Women Talking – IN
• M.M. Keeravani, RRR – OUT
• Justin Hurwitz, Babylon – IN
• John Williams, The Fabelmans – IN
• Carter Burwell, The Banshees of Inisherin – IN
• Son Lux, Everything Everywhere All at Once – IN
• Michael Abels, Nope – IN
• Simon Franglen, Avatar: The Way of Water – IN
• Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, Bones and All – OUT
• Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, Empire of Light – OUT
• Danny Elfman, White Noise – OUT
• Terence Blanchard, The Woman King – IN

10/15, meh. Below are my misses:

• Volker Bertelmann, All Quiet on the Western Front
• Chanda Dancy, Devotion
• John Powell, Don’t Worry Darling
• Nathan Johnson, Glass Onion
• Nicholas Britell, She Said

Music (Original Song)

• Rihanna, Tems, Ryan Coogler, Ludwig Göransson – “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – IN
• Diane Warren – “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman – IN
• Lady Gaga, BloodPop – “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick – IN
• Guillermo del Toro, Roeben Katz, Alexandre Desplat – “Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio – IN
• Billie Eilish, Finneas – “Nobody Like U” from Turning Red – OUT
• Billy Eichner, Marc Shaiman – “Love Is Not Love” from Bros – OUT
• The Weeknd, Simon Franglen – “Nothing is Lost (You Give Me Strength)” from Avatar: The Way of Water – IN
• Son Lux, Mitski, David Byrne – “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once – IN
• M.M. Keeravani, Chandrabose, Sirivennela Seethara Sastry – “Naatu Naatu” from RRR – IN
• James Murphy, Nancy Whang, Patrick Mahoney – “new body rhumba” from White Noise – IN
• Justin Paul, Benj Pasek – either “Carried Away” or “Take a Look at Us Now” from Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile – OUT (right songwriters, wrong movie)
• Taylor Swift – “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing – IN
• Terence Blanchard, Ruth B. – “Paper Airplanes” from A Jazzman’s Blues – OUT
• Charli XCX, George Daniel – “Hot Girl” from Bodies, Bodies, Bodies – OUT
• Mel Brooks – “(There Was Nothing Like the Coffee) at the Automat” from The Automat – OUT

9/15, meh. Below are my misses:

• Daniel Pemberton, Drake, Giveon, Jahaan Akil Sweet – “Time” from Amsterdam
• Rita Wilson and David Hodges – “Til You’re Home” from A Man Called Otto
• Selena Gomez – “My Mind & Me” from Selena Gomez: My Mind & Me
• Mark Sonnenblick, Justin Paul, Benj Pasek – “Good Afternoon” from Spirited
• Jazmine and D’Mile – “Stand Up” from Till
• “Dust & Ash” from The Voice of Dust & Ash

Sound

• Elvis – IN
• Top Gun: Maverick – IN
• Avatar: The Way of Water – IN
• The Batman – IN
• Babylon – IN
• The Woman King – OUT
• All Quiet on the Western Front – IN
• RRR – OUT
• Nope – OUT
• Everything Everywhere All at Once – IN

7/10, not too shabby. Below are my misses:

• Moonage Daydream
• Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
• Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Visual Effects

• Avatar: The Way of Water – IN
• Top Gun: Maverick – IN
• Everything Everywhere All at Once – OUT
• RRR – OUT
• Nope – IN
• The Batman – IN
• Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – IN
• Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness – IN
• Elvis – OUT
• Good Night Oppy – OUT

6/10, meh. Below are my misses:

• All Quiet on the Western Front
• Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore
• Jurassic World: Dominion
• Thirteen Lives