The American Film Institute’s (AFI) Top Ten award is easily one of my favorite announcements of the film awards season. For one thing, it’s a very important precursor for the Oscars, but it also gives teams an idea for a waiver wire pickup to replace that inevitable PIC bust that happens each year. Likely all ten of the films that appeared on this list were taken, except for maybe Nope, the surprise but welcome inclusion on the list. So if any of these films are on waivers, go put in a waiver request, then come back. I’ll wait.
The Top Ten (plus Special Mention)
- AVATAR: THE WAY OF WATER
- ELVIS
- EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE
- THE FABELMANS
- NOPE
- SHE SAID
- TÁR
- TOP GUN: MAVERICK
- THE WOMAN KING
- WOMEN TALKING
- Special Mention: THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN
Films Both on AFI and NBR
- AVATAR: THE WAY OF WATER
- EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE
- THE FABELMANS
- TOP GUN: MAVERICK
- THE WOMAN KING
- WOMEN TALKING
- THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN
Best Picture Implication
So the seven films that hit both AFI and NBR are likely going to be nominated for a Best Picture. It’s not guaranteed. The only film here that I can imagine getting snubbed is The Woman King. I certainly hope not. Tár is also a near-lock to get into the Best Picture lineup. That leaves only two slots left for other contenders in a fairly crowded field. We can start narrowing it down by looking at films that either hit NBR or AFI, but not both. Those films include NBR’s Aftersun, Glass Onion, RRR, and Till with AFI’s Elvis, Nope, She Said, and Tár. Conventional wisdom gives more of a boost to AFI inclusion than NBR, which isn’t a stretch because it’s easier to imagine a Best Picture lineup with Elvis, Tár, and She Said instead of Glass Onion, RRR, and Till. Granted, RRR wasn’t eligible for AFI, but it already faces an uphill battle getting snubbed by India’s selection committee.
The Indirect Winner Here is Wendell & Wild?
Jordan Peele has a lot of respect among the film industry. Nope is still a longshot for a Best Picture nomination, but another Jordan Peele produced film could secure a Best Animated Feature nomination. I truly think this year we’ll see THREE stop-motion animated films: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, and Wendell & Wild. Perhaps this is the year that stop-motion animation is recognized with an Oscar statuette.
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