The Atlanta Film Critics Circle announced their winners, and in a atypical fashion, they announced nominations in only two categories honoring breakthrough performance and breakthrough directing. Charlotte Wells continued her dominance of the breakthrough directing (also earning SIX points from BIFA, which does not have one of my reaction posts) while Austin Butler got the breakthrough performance points. By announcing one category the morning of the first day of Matchup #2, the AFCC caused starting lineups to lock, likely to the chagrin of managers thinking they had more time to mull over starting lineup decisions. But that’s film awards fantasy, baby!
Everything Everywhere All at Once wins Best Feature
Not too surprising here. Everything Everywhere All at Once will earn a number of wins at various critics organizations, this one not excepted.
Cate Blanchett, Colin Farrell, Ke Huy Quan, and Janelle Monáe win the acting categories
It’s still early in the season, but doesn’t it feel like a LOT of critics organizations will be honoring Cate Blanchett (Tár), Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin), and Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)? The latter will probably have his name called more than the other two, but these three seem poised to pull lots of points and wins throughout the season. This three-headed monster seems eerily similar to last year’s early three-headed monster of Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog), Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog), and Ariana DeBose (West Side Story). (Last year, Best Lead Actress was the most wide open while this year it’s Best Supporting Actress.)
Before you say Will Smith (King Richard) and Troy Kotsur (CODA) won the Oscar, I say from a fantasy points perspective, Will Smith and Troy Kotsur were less valuable than Cumberbatch and Smit-McPhee in the regular season. Ke Huy Quan, on the other hand, is following the same trajectory as Ariana DeBose, an early favorite that carried momentum throughout the entire season. Many are saying that Ke Huy Quan is similar to Troy Kotsur’s path to Oscar glory, mostly because of it being a feel-good pick and they are, after all, in the same category, but I argue Ke Huy Quan is more like Ariana DeBose’s path to Oscar glory because there doesn’t appear to be a serious contender like Kodi Smit-McPhee was for Troy Kotsur. This year’s Best Supporting Actor race is like last year’s Best Supporting Actress race.
This year’s Best Lead Actress race appears to be similar to last year’s Best Supporting Actor race. Troy Kotsur did win the Gotham Award, but after that it was mostly Kodi Smit-McPhee pulling wins. That feels awfully similar to Danielle Deadwyler (Till) winning a Gotham Award while Cate Blanchett appears to be the critics darling, doesn’t it? And we can’t forget about Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once) lurking.
This year’s Best Lead Actor race appears to be similar to last year’s Best Lead Actor race. Will Smith was the early favorite much like Brendan Fraser (The Whale) is the early favorite this year. Colin Farrell has now won multiple times while Brendan Fraser has not, much like Benedict Cumberbatch won over Will Smith last year. And let’s not forget Austin Butler (Elvis) who can be this year’s Andrew Garfield (tick, tick…Boom!). Or maybe Austin Butler is Will Smith and Brendan Fraser is Andrew Garfield? Confused yet? So am I.
And that leaves us with this year’s Best Supporting Actress race, similar to last year’s Best Actress race. The race this year is wide open, as it was last year. Last year, though, Kristen Stewart (Spencer) was the early favorite, but we don’t have such an early favorite this year. Kristen Stewart’s stock dwindled when Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye), Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos), and Lady Gaga (House of Gucci) started getting wins. Of the three critics organizations honoring Best Supporting Actress, we have as many winners: Carey Mulligan (She Said), Keke Palmer (Nope), and Janelle Monáe (Glass Onion). There will be plenty of others who will snag wins. This is easily the most competitive race, meaning if you missed out on Danielle Deadwyler, Cate Blanchett, or Michelle Yeoh, you will be struggling to find another fantasy juggernaut for that ACTRS slot.
It is WAY early in the season, so any takes right now should be taken with a grain of salt, mine included. A LOT can happen in these next two months, and it’s easy to overreact to every regional critics awards.
Claudio Miranda is near-lock for Best Cinematography nomination
Claudio Miranda (Top Gun: Maverick) was on many lists to get into the Best Cinematography Oscar nomination list. Now he should be on everyone’s predictions lists. He now has two wins, and although critics organizations do not accurately represent the attitudes of Oscar voters, in this case we can safely assume that Claudio Miranda is a lock for a nomination, maybe even a win.
Martin McDonagh wins Screenplay
Martin McDonagh is a contender for any movie he writes, and his script for The Banshees of Inisherin is no different. At this point early in the season, it appears instead of Martin McDonagh stealing some wins from Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once), it’ll be Daniels stealing a few wins from Martin McDonagh. Martin McDonagh was likely an early round pick, so managers who missed out on drafting one of Daniel Kwan or Daniel Scheinert didn’t really miss anything at all.
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